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Absolute Certainty — LessWrong

Absolute Certainty

			v1.10.0Sep 15th 2020 GMT	(+154)
			v1.9.0Dec 19th 2010 GMT	(+10) added "Probing the Improbable" FHI paper
			v1.8.0Dec 16th 2010 GMT	(+57) /* Blog posts */ added Yvain's "Confidence levels inside and outside an argument"
			v1.7.0Oct 20th 2010 GMT	link to Cromwell's rule
			v1.6.0Nov 16th 2009 GMT	(-63) byline removal
			v1.5.0Oct 24th 2009 GMT	(+5) /* See also */
			v1.4.0Sep 28th 2009 GMT	(+77/-77)
			v1.3.0Jul 8th 2009 GMT	(+14) /* See also */
			v1.2.0May 29th 2009 GMT	(+4/-4) /* See Also */
			v1.1.0May 29th 2009 GMT	(+10/-34)

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Ruby v1.10.0Sep 15th 2020 GMT (+154) 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.9.0Dec 19th 2010 GMT (+10) added "Probing the Improbable" FHI paper 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.8.0Dec 16th 2010 GMT (+57) /* Blog posts */ added Yvain's "Confidence levels inside and outside an argument" 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.7.0Oct 20th 2010 GMT link to Cromwell's rule 2

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Zack_M_Davis v1.6.0Nov 16th 2009 GMT (-63) byline removal 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.5.0Oct 24th 2009 GMT (+5) /* See also */ 2

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PeerInfinity v1.4.0Sep 28th 2009 GMT (+77/-77) 1

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.3.0Jul 8th 2009 GMT (+14) /* See also */ 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.2.0May 29th 2009 GMT (+4/-4) /* See Also */ 2

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Vladimir_Nesov v1.1.0May 29th 2009 GMT (+10/-34) 2

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Infinite Certainty
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument by Yvain

Infinite Certainty by ~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities by ~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~
How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3 by ~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~

See also

~~Bayesian probability~~
~~Scoring rule~~
~~Antiprediction~~
~~Mind projection fallacy~~

See also

Bayesian probability
Scoring rule
Antiprediction
Mind projection fallacy

Bayesian probability
Scoring rule
Antiprediction
Mind projection fallacy
Doubt

Toby Ord, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Anders Sandberg (2008). Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes.

Bayesian probability
Scoring rule
Antiprediction
Mind projection fallacy

References

See Alsoalso

ReferencesBlog posts

Overcoming Bias Articles