| Zack_M_Davis | v1.10.0 | (-21) byline removal | ||
| Vladimir_Nesov | v1.9.0 | (+199/-155) | ||
| Eliezer Yudkowsky | v1.8.0 | (+13) | ||
| PeerInfinity | v1.7.0 | (+55/-55) | ||
| PeerInfinity | v1.6.0 | (+7/-7) | ||
| steven0461 | v1.5.0 | (+35/-57) | ||
| Vladimir_Nesov | v1.4.0 | (+11/-11) | ||
| Vladimir_Nesov | v1.3.0 | /* Blog posts */ | ||
| Zack_M_Davis | v1.2.0 | (+18/-12) representativeness != availability | ||
| Zack_M_Davis | v1.1.0 | (-47) /* Blog posts */ |
The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the representativeness heuristic, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially(this is known as conjunction fallacy). Any detail you add has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence; all the details you make no claim about can be summed over.
The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you mention explicitlyadd has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence,evidence; all the possibilities and details not assertedyou make no claim about can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the representativeness heuristic, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially.
The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you mention explicitly has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence, all the possibilities and details not asserted can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the representativeness heuristic heuristic,, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially.
The conjunction rule of probability theory states that a conjunction (A and B) is necessarily less probable than one of the conjuncts alone (A). Any detail you mention explicitly has to be pinned down by a sufficient amount of evidence, all the possibilities and details not asserted can be summed over. Adding more details to a theory may make it sound more plausible to human ears because of the availabilityrepresentativeness heuristic, even as the story becomes normatively less probable, as burdensome details drive the probability of the conjunction down exponentially.
byEliezer Yudkowsky