In an upcoming short sequence of posts, I'm going to try to describe a causal pathway from
By default, I'll write one post for each of the above points, since they have different epistemic statuses and can be debated separately. Posts 1 and 3 will be somewhat technical and research-oriented, and cross-posted to the alignment forum, whereas 2 and 4 will be non-technical and community-oriented, and cross-posted to the EA forum. After that there might be more posts in the sequence, depending on the ensuing conversation. In any case I'll try to keep this index post updated with the full sequences.
ETA Oct 31, 2022: There is now a proper sequence index for this sequence :)→ «Boundaries» Sequence
In case you missed it, LW 2.0 has feature support for creating sequences. If you hover over your username, the menu has a link to https://www.lesswrong.com/sequencesnew