D&D.Sci: Serial Healers
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Accusations so far:
- Nettie Silver has been curing Smokesickness.
- Zancro has been curing Scraped Knee and Scraped Elbow
- Danny Nova has been curing Babblepox
The above diseases have never been cured without the associated character present.
Other diseases do not have as strong an association with a character's presence, so presumably they are the work either of multiple characters or of nonlocal effects.
Observations:
- Some magic users only go to a subset of the city's districts, while others travel all over the city.
- Some magic users have their locations recorded much more often than others. (I assume N/A means "not in the city"?)
- Some magic users are absent from the data for entire years at a time.
- Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome was not healed at all until day 390, at which point it became one of the most common heals and has maintained a steady rate of cases per year.
- Other diseases healed have variation by year, but no other one ever goes to zero in a year.
- Problems Disorder, Parachondria, and Disease Syndrome all have the same pattern of locations, appearing only in districts 4-10 with the highest frequency around 10 (the Market, on the map) and the lowest around 4.
More accusations:
- Dankon Ground was present in the city on 100% of days when Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat was cured, vs 13% of days overall.
- Azeru was present in the city on 95% of days when Scramblepox was cured, vs 62% of days overall.
- When Problems Disorder/Parachondria/Disease Syndrome are cured, Boltholopew and Moon Finder are always in the two adjacent districts.
Observation:
Rumblepox is almost 10 times less likely to be healed when Averill is in the city. Is he keeping someone else busy?
Making some charts of mage location x disease location:
The only new accusation I add is Tehami Darke curing Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome. It seems to only ever be cured when she is in the same district as the cure or when she is in district 6.
Azeru's healing seems to affect the districts adjacent to him, while Dankon Ground affects the opposite side of the city.
There are some weird things going on with the Problems Disorder/Parachondria/Disease Syndrome triad. Many mages have a lot of zeros in the mage location x heal location matrix. Maybe whatever Boltholopew and Moon Finder are doing pulls in more people to make it work, or maybe there is some selection effect on when it happens.
The question is ambiguous. Is an "accusation" "this mage has illegally healed" or "this mage has done this specific illegal healing"?
You get scored based on the number of mages you correctly accuse; and a valid accusation requires you to specify at least one kind of illegal healing they've done. (So if you've already got Exampellius the Explanatory for healing Chucklepox, you don't get anything extra for identifying that he's also healed several cases of Rumblepox.)
My current accusations of which wizards have been causing[1] disease.
VERY SIMPLE LINKAGES:
- Babblepox and Chucklepox are both caused by Danny Nova.
- Scraped Knee and Scraped Elbow are both caused by Zancro.
- Smokesickness is caused by Nettie Silver.
INTERMEDIATE LINKAGES:
- Disease Syndrome is caused by Moon Finder. However, the power of the Moon allows him to strike people with this from a distance: he affects people in sector X+1 or X-1 while he is in sector X.[2]
- Parachondria and Problems Disorder are caused by Bartholopew, who says 'Pew' while casting spells to strike people with this from a distance: he affects people in sector X+1 or X-1 while he is in sector X.[2]
- Scramblepox and Bumblepox are caused by both Azeru (at range up to 1) and Danny Nova (just in his own sector).
- Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat is caused by Dankon Ground. It's not occuring in his sector, but it only occurs when he is present in the city, never otherwise.
COMPLEX LINKAGES:
- Rumblepox is mostly caused by Averill (who leaves behind delayed-action magic that goes off up to 4 days later to spread it), plus a little bit by Danny Nova (just spreading it directly).
- Gurglepox is caused by Azeru and Cayn: I believe they may be deceiving the monitoring (since both of them claim to always be in Zone [Day+9 mod 12]) every day they are in the city, even if this means skipping zones). However, it only appears on days when one or the other is in the city. Perhaps they are hiding behind invisibility or illusions while spreading it? EDIT: I am withdrawing this accusation, since it turns out that Azeru and Cayn always have at least one of them in the city. (Also, we already have Azeru nicked on other charges).
- Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome was caused by a ritual of some kind cast around Day 390 - it did not appear before then, and since then it has appeared regularly (ha) across all Calderia. I have no proof of who conducted the ritual - I suspect the wizard Gouberi (who formally showed up in the university for the first time the next week), but don't have enough proof to make that a formal accusation.
- I have no idea where The Shivers come from.
- ^
Obviously, no-one would be this offended by people curing disease for free! Rather, it seems clear that the Calderians have some customary circumlocutions around speaking of spreading plague, in order to not bring down the attention of the Pallid Princess, She Who Arises In Filth. We should interpret this whole dataset as about problems caused rather than problems healed, but we shouldn't say that directly to the Calderians.
- ^
There seems to be some pattern in when these mages affect the clockwise sector and when the counter-clockwise, but I don't know what it is. It might match e.g. phase of moon, but not neatly enough that I can easily work it out.
I've now had multiple people tell me that I shouldn't have released anything game-shaped during what is apparently Silksong week. Accordingly, I'm changing the deadline to Sep 22nd; apologies for any inconvenience, and you're welcome for any convenience.
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1(I wish to register that I didn't miss this scenario, and intend to get around to playing it this weekend...it's just that you made the awful indie-game blunder of releasing your game the day after Silksong came out, and my free time has been somewhat spoken for for the past few days).
1The wording does not explicitly say that all instances of magical healing in the logs were criminally below market rate. Should we assume that every listed instance is a below-market-rate instance?
Accusations so far:
For each mage is a specific heal UID I think is safe to accuse them of, followed by what I suspect them of healing.
- Boltholopew: 58 (Disease Syndrome, Parachondria, and Problems Disorder, healed from 1 sector away)
- Dankon Ground: 136 (All cases of Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat and most cases of Gurglepox, healed from 6 sectors away)
- Danny Nova: 22 (Babblepox, the rest of Gurglepox)
- Nettie Silver: 7 (Smokesickness)
- Zancro: 19 (Scraped Elbow and Scraped Knee)
Observations:
- Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome only starts appearing on day 390, but becomes the most-healed disease. There are mages that only start showing up after a certain day, but none on 390. Maybe the disease itself is new? Or the heal is delayed from the magic being cast?
- Azeru and Cayn appear in complementary distribution, and together go around the sectors in order. Dunno if that's somehow useful.
- The diseases don't seem to be spread evenly. E.g. Boltholopew appears in sectors 4-11 and heals Disease Syndrome, Parachondria, and Problems Disorder one sector away, but we don't see any instances of them being healed in sectors 3, 11, or 12 where I would expect it to be possible. So either the disease doesn't happen there, or Boltholopew's behaviour is more complicated than it seems.
Some additional accusations:
- Azeru: 81 (Some cases of Bumblepox and Scramblepox, from 1 sector away. Danny Nova heals the rest)
- Lomerius Xardus: 3411 (Some cases of Chucklepox, from sector 5. Danny Nova also heals the rest)
Danny Nova is also healing many cases of Rumblepox, but I haven't figured out who's healing the rest.
Edit: It's Averill. I accuse Averill of heal UID 53. They show up one day at a time with a gap of at least 6 days in between, and the remaining cases of Rumblepox always get healed in the sector where Averill was last seen, but never on a day when they're actually present.
My accusations, at least so far:
Danny Nova for curing:
- Babblepox (always present in same sector)
- Bumblepox, Scramblepox (always present in same sector OR Azeru in adjacent sector
- Gurglepox (always present in same sector OR Dankon Ground in opposite sector)
- Chucklepox (Danny Nova in same sector for about half of cures. All other cases Lomerius Xardus was present somewhere (todo: investigate if more patterns than mere presence))
- Rumblepox (suspiciously high ratio of presence/absence in Calderia when cured, but plenty more cases unexplained - TODO: explain more)
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome (on weak evidence, see below)
Azeru for curing Bumblepox, Scramblepox (see Danny Nova)
Lomerius Xardus for curing Chucklepox (see Danny Nova)
Boltholopew and Moon Finder, collectively, for curing Disease Syndrome, Parachordia, Problems Disorder (each one positioned in different adjacent sectors to the curing event)
Tehami Darke on weak evidence (see below) for curing Disquetingly Serene Bowel Syndrome
Dankon Ground for curing;
- Gurglepox (present in opposite sector OR Danny Nova in same sector)
- Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat (always present in opposite sector)
Zancro for curing Scraped Elbow, Scraped Knee (always present in same sector)
Nettie Silver for curing Smokesickness (always present in same sector. It seems she is always present in Calderia, but her location and the Smokesickness curing location, when it occurs, do vary)
I have not figured out The Shivers.
Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome seems tricky. Cures only started on Day 390. Tehami Darke came to Calderia on Day 162, Lomerius Xardus first arrived on day 494, Zeledin Zura first arrived on day 427, Gouberi first arrived on day 397, Ricewined first arrived on day 994. None of which is particularly suggestive of a causal connection though the p-values would be very low assuming (falsely) that each day was independent. Cures seem more likely to occur in the sector where Tehami Darke is present, which is pretty weak without further investigation (e.g. is he hanging out in some sector where it's more likely to occur anyway? I haven't checked). Conditioned on day 390+, the average number of cures is slightly higher on days when Danny Nova is present, also weak, but the prior for Danny being involved is high, so might as well accuse him as well. (edit: no, seems there is no upside to this accusation given the scoring rule and the high confidence Danny Nova has been curing other stuff)
Only about 3/4 of healings had a mage present in the sector at the time, so either we have cases of mages healing in sectors other than the one where they are in, or there is some other source of healing.
A mage is only reliably present when Babblepox, Scraped Elbow, Scraped Knee, and Smokesickness is cured.
Nettie Silver was always in the sector where Smokesickness was cured, so accuse her of this.
Zancro was always in the sector where Scraped Knee and scraped elbow was cured so accuse him of these.
Danny Nova was always in the sector where babblepox is healed so accuse her of this.,
There are a couple of instances where a mage is always present when a disease is cured in a specific sector. This is always sector 4, 5, or 6. It is probably not a coincidence that there is a special building in each of these sectors. Most of them only occurred a small number of times though, so they might be a statistical fluke. The two exceptions are chucklepox in sector 5 and Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome in sector 6. Tehami Darke is always in sector 6 when a case of Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome is healed in that sector, so accuse him of that. I can't see anything obvious for sector 5 though.
Mildly But Persistently Itchy Throat is always cured when Dankon Ground is on the opposite side of the city, so accuse him of this.
Tehami Darke is always in sector 6 when a case of Disquietingly Serene Bowel Syndrome is healed in sectors 1,2, and 12. He is always in the city when a case of this is healed. This is enough to provisionally assign all the other cases to him.
Both Boltholopew and Moon Finder are always in an adjacent sector when Problems Disorder, Parachondria, and Disease Syndrome are healed. There appears to be no obvious way to discriminate between them. Maybe they are collaborating to make it more difficult for the authorities to discover them? Under the principle of innocent unless proven guilty I can't accuse either of them of it though. If I was trying to maximise thr profit I made I would accuse both of them as it seems more likely that both of them would be involved than neither of them.
Nettie Silver is always in the city.
Either one of Azeru or Cayn are always in the city.
Either Archiwise the Bald or Boltholopew are always in the city
When the above are excluded the only pair of mages where at least one is present in the city when Bumblepox and Scramblepox are cured are Azure and Danny Nova are always in the city. So accuse them of those.
When Chucklepox or Gurglepox are cure there are two different pairs where at least one was in the city. Danny Nova and Dankon Ground look the most likely culprits for Gurglepox. Lomerius Xardus and Danny Nova look like the most likely pair for Chucklepox.
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