Squiggle is a special-purpose programming language for probabilistic estimation. Think: "Guesstimate as a programming language." Squiggle is free and open-source.

Read the overview.

Overarching goals

• Allow non-experts to see the "sum" of views on a question
  • Allow non-experts
• Allow expression of estimated distributions and functions easily ^[1]

Squiggle is not

• For intensive calcution

Models vs estimation functions

• A key notion is the difference between models and estimation functions
• Models are high detail and expensive to run. They make implications about causality
• Explanation functions used cached date and are cheap to run
• The world is a model, a photograph or video game simulator is an estimation function

The world is made of complex models, but we want answers to simpler questions - what is the most pressing thing to work on? How do we reduce risk? What am I going to have for lunch?

1. ^{^}

   https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5BWqSzuLbpTSoTc4/squiggle-an-overview#What_Squiggle_is_Meant_For