FYI @jefftk, the link from your site for this post goes to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/slug/qNJnXBFzninFT5m3nkids which is a 404 for me

Thanks Raemon – I'm a fan of ~all these ideas! I'm not spending much time on Fatebook specifically these days (busy with various other projects), but your feedback is and has been super useful.

Here's what the question creation interface looks like – you can create any question, and there's a bunch of suggestions to help you get started:

Here's what it looks like when you've created some questions. I made these predictions with my partner, so you can see her predictions on the question that's expanded:

For more info, I'd suggest just using the website itself. It is designed to be super easy to use and self-describing!

The website is part of Fatebook, a tool for rapidly tracking predictions. Predict Your Year is a specialised page for creating yearly predictions (which is a popular activity for many people, e.g. inspired by Scott Alexander's annual prediction posts). You can read more about Fatebook in this LessWrong post.

Predict your 2025: a website for recording probabilistic forecasts about your life and the world in the next year.

Thanks for the suggestion - you can now sign in to Fatebook with email!

Relevant data: https://x.com/wilhelmscreamin/status/1870804383283433731

my current guess is 15-20% of new users are already referred to the site because ChatGPT or Claude told them to read things here

Wow, this is higher than I would have expected! Do you have metrics showing this or otherwise what makes you think so?

Thank you!

Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I'd like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.

I agree this would be nice. But try clicking on a tag to see all of your forecasts under it!

I think it's still very useful to be able to predict your own behaviour (including in the case where you know you've made a prediction about it).

Things can get weird if you care more about the outcome of the prediction than the outcome of the event in itself, but this should rarely be the case - and is worth avoiding, I think.

Cool idea! I am not sure you'd be able to move to real money betting given that cheating is trivial (just google the text of the article).