It sure looks more like a jacket than a rifle.
Also, that GPT-5 analysis seems really bad. Not very informative that it didn't find anything. It also might not be "objective" if you interacted with it after not seeing the rifle yourself, which I feel like I get from your messages.
When the figure is about to jump off of the roof, they briefly put down their bag. It has a long thin part of the right side. It’s not definitively a rifle, but its shape is consistent with one. There isn’t enough detail to really show for sure one way or another.
Given the quality of the camera, that item's shape is "consistent with" a lot of different items, including a rifle. It could've been anything from a jacket to a small suitcase, and any features smaller than a couple inches (such as a rifle barrel) would disappear between the pixels.
I wouldn't expect to see an identifiable rifle in that low-quality footage, so not seeing it isn't surprising. Album, where I tried to keep the pixelization consistent (18 pixels tall = 4"/pixel in the video, guessing 28" barrel = 7 output pixels per 430 input pixels). My unidentifiable blob is consistent with a rifle because it was made from a rifle. It's also consistent with a stick.
To answer your question succinctly: I don't see or not see a rifle. The video is not clear enough to tell. And I think we should draw zero consequences from that.
I think trying to deeply analyze a grainy video to confirm or deny the existence of a rifle is a fool's errand when there's so much other evidence available. It's silly for the FBI to claim it's definitively a rifle, and it's silly to claim that not being able to see a rifle in that quality of video cuts against guilt.
There's a ton of other evidence, finding the rifle near the scene of the shooting in the woods, the other surveillance where a rifle is much more visible, the texts, the confession, etc.
Tyler Robinson is Rudy Guede. The evidence points towards him. Is it vaguely possible that the FBI has manufactured a ton of evidence and has convinced many civilians, including Robinson's own father and his boyfriend to lie, but that is a mere possibility and definitely not reasonable.
The FBI uploaded a video of their suspected shooter running over the roof after the shoot on Charlie Kirk was made. The Utah County Attorney writes in their charging document:
When I look at the video myself I don't see "an item whose shape is consistent with a rifle". When I asked GPT-5 Pro (to have an objective perspective) whether it can find such an item on the video and it can't find anything that matches the description either.
In the past we discussed how Amanda Knox likely wasn't guilty as charged because the evidence from the prosecution didn't really line up. What do you think in this case? Do you see the rifle? Otherwise, what consequences should we draw from it not being there?