Sage Future

Sage is an organization helping impactful communities figure out what's true.

We've made AI Digest, Fatebook, and Quantified Intuitions.

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See also Confido and Fatebook - The only numeric calibration test that I know of (asks you to provide a "95% confidence interval)!! :) However, you'll need to grade it yourself :(

See also

Thanks! There's a Manifold Markets Discord bot which lets you quickly create and bet on markets

We might create a Fatebook Discord bot if there's enough interest (some other people have asked for it) - though first we're making a web version.

Good question - each time it'll ask for your 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, or 95% confidence interval (chosen at random). So over time you'll be able to see your calibration scores

See your Anki calibration scores

Unfortunately, there’s no fully general solution to prevent cheating. We rely on people’s honor to skip questions they already know and intend it to be used mainly as a tool for training and competing against people you trust.

Thanks for the feedback! We've fixed the issue and you should be able to see our default question again after login.