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Sage is an organization helping impactful communities figure out what's true.

We've made AI Digest, Fatebook, and Quantified Intuitions.

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Predicting: Quick Start
Sage Future2y31

Other platforms

See also Confido and Fatebook 

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Predicting: Quick Start
Sage Future2y20

https://peterattiamd.com/confidence/ - The only numeric calibration test that I know of (asks you to provide a "95% confidence interval)!! :) However, you'll need to grade it yourself :(

See also quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration

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Fatebook for Slack: Track your forecasts, right where your team works
Sage Future2y61

Thanks! There's a Manifold Markets Discord bot which lets you quickly create and bet on markets

We might create a Fatebook Discord bot if there's enough interest (some other people have asked for it) - though first we're making a web version.

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Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool
Sage Future2y20

Good question - each time it'll ask for your 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, or 95% confidence interval (chosen at random). So over time you'll be able to see your calibration scores

See your Anki calibration scores
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Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice
Sage Future3y32

Unfortunately, there’s no fully general solution to prevent cheating. We rely on people’s honor to skip questions they already know and intend it to be used mainly as a tool for training and competing against people you trust.

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Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice
Sage Future3y10

Thanks for the feedback! We've fixed the issue and you should be able to see our default question again after login.

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55Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)
8mo
3
36Concrete benefits of making predictions
11mo
5
14Fatebook for Chrome: Make and embed forecasts anywhere on the web
2y
3
19Forecast your 2024 with Fatebook
2y
0
132Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
2y
41
24Fatebook for Slack: Track your forecasts, right where your team works
2y
3
14Anki with Uncertainty: Turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool
2y
2
20The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation web app
3y
2
28Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app
3y
2
95Introducing Pastcasting: A tool for forecasting practice
3y
10
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