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Until this Sunday, you can submit your 2025 AI predictions at ai2025.org. It’s a forecasting survey by AI Digest for the 2025 performance on various AI benchmarks, as well as revenue and public attention. You can share your results in a picture like this one. I personally found it pretty...
Your mind is a prediction machine, constantly trying to anticipate the world around you and altering its forecasts based on new information. It’s always doing this as a background process. But what would happen if you deliberately trained this skill? Could you get better at predicting your projects, your life,...
Fatebook is the fastest way to track your predictions. Now we've made a Chrome extension that makes it even faster. With Fatebook for Chrome, you can now create and embed forecasts inside Google Docs. Or anywhere else on the web! Inside your to-do list... Or even inside Google Meet! To...
We've built predict your year in 2024, a space for you to write down your forecasts for the year on Fatebook. At the end of your year, you can return, resolve your predictions as YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, and reflect. Some of Sage’s forecasting questions for the year (my forecasts...
Fatebook is a website that makes it extremely low friction to make and track predictions. It's designed to be very fast - just open a new tab, go to fatebook.io, type your prediction, and hit enter. Later, you'll get an email reminding you to resolve your question as YES, NO,...
Announcing Fatebook for Slack - a Slack bot designed to help high-impact orgs build a culture of forecasting. With Fatebook, you can ask a forecasting question in your team's Slack: Then, everyone in the channel can forecast: When it's time to resolve the question as Yes, No or Ambiguous, the...
We've developed an Anki addon that lets you do calibration training on numerical flashcards! Find information on how it works and how to use it on Quantified Intuitions. Thanks to @Beth Barnes for supporting the development and giving feedback. And thanks to @Hauke Hillebrandt for inspiring this idea with this...