Note that Tesla has (just) started producing a truck: https://www.tesla.com/semi. And electric trucks stand to benefit the most from self-driving tech, because their marginal cost of operation is lower than gas powered, so you get a bigger benefit from the higher utilization that not having a driver enables. [...] Totally fair point, but FWIW, if you look at analyst reports, they're mostly not factoring in FSD. And basic napkin math suggests the current valuation is reasonable based on vehicle sales alone, if sales continue to grow for the next few years in line with Tesla's stated production goals. And while you might think Telsa has a bad track record of hitting their stated goals, they've actually done pretty well on the key metrics of cars produced and revenue. Revenue has grown on average 50% per year since 2013 (the first full year of Model S production, which seems like a good place to start counting, so that growth numbers aren't inflated by starting at zero). They've guided for 50% revenue growth for the next few years as well, and their plan to achieve that seems plausible. For the next year or so it's just a matter of scaling up production at their new Berlin and Austin factories, and they're supposedly looking for more factory locations so they can continue growing after that as well. All that said, I agree that buying TSLA is not a pure play on the AI part — you have to have some view on whether all the stuff I said above about their car business is right or not. [...] I agree this could be worthwhile. Though I feel that with shorting, timing becomes more important because you have to pay interest on the position.