Plane crashes

by michael_b 1 min read8th Mar 20159 comments


So. Inevitably after a plane crash a discussion comes up where someone may say that they're worried about flying now, and someone else pulls out the statistic that driving to the airport is more dangerous than flying.  I think this reasoning is basically correct on the long-term, but not appropriate in the short-term.

Suppose it's the day after flight MH370 mysteriously disappeared.  Information is extremely sketchy.  You're about to get on a similar plane, operated by the same airliner, taking off from the same airport flying the same route.  Should you get on the plane?  That is, are you wrong to worry more than usual when we have no idea what happened to MH370?  I would say no.  The complete disappearance of flight MH370 without warning and without a trace the day before says **update your priors** at least for the short-term.