Yes. I don't expect Trump to finish the term. 2026 would be my guess for the most likely year, but each of 2027 and 2028 is almost equally likely, and there's even some chance it could still happen before the end of 2025. 1. He's acting erratic and weird (more than usual and increasingly). It may not be possible to prop him up for very long. Or at least it may be very hard, and it's not clear that the people who'd have to do that are agreed on the need to try that hard. 2. His political coalition is under tremendous pressure. He's unpopular, he keeps making unpopular moves, and there doesn't seem to be any power base he's not prepared to alienate. It's hard to gauge how much all that is straining things, because you often don't see any cracks until the whole thing suddenly collapses. The way collapse looks from the outside is probably that one of his many scandals, missteps, and whatnot suddenly sticks, a few key people or groups visibly abandon him, that signals everybody else, and it quickly snowballs into impeachment and removal. 3. He's at risk of assassination. A whole lot of people, including crazy people, are very, very mad at him. A whole lot of others might just coldly think it's a good idea for him to die for a variety of reasons. Including the desire to substitute Vance as president, in fact. He's random, reckless, autocratic, and fast-moving enough to foreclose many non-assassination alternatives that might normally keep the thought out of people's minds. Security isn't perfect and he's probably not always a cooperative protectee. 4. He's almost 80, which means he has a several percent chance of dying in any given year regardless.