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avturchin

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H5N1 https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501244375/after-death-of-girl-yesterday-12-more-detected-with-h5n1-bird-flu/

2Vladimir_Nesov4y

The relevant Metaculus question is at 27% on human-to-human transmission in 2023, has this event mentioned in the comments (though I think without the "found 12 more people infected" part), didn't move much.

Exactly the fact that 12 more people are infected make me to post.

Single infections are not surprising. However, there is an analog of LessWrong but for pandemic flu, called Flutrackers, and they found more details: there are many dead birds in the area and all 15 birds in her home has died. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/cambodia/cambodia-h5n1-tracking/968975-cambodia-death-of-11-yr-old-female-in-prey-veng-province-h5n1-avian-flu-february-22-2023/page2#post969072 This could mean that all people infected from birds, not from each other.

Also, som... (read more)