If rationality skills were Harry Potter spells...

10Ben Pace

2loriphos

2Elo

7alkjash

8[anonymous]

6romeostevensit

3Charlie Steiner

1fuserofworlds

7romeostevensit

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I love this. FYI the minimal change that makes the image of the Empirio spell valid is to write P(B) = P(B|A) x P(A).

I realize I'm a couple weeks behind and nobody might read this, but this is false (e.g., if I flip two fair + independent coins and A = "first coin is heads" and B = "second coin is heads", P(B) = 1/2, but P(B|A) x P(A) = (1/2)x(1/2) = 1/4). I think what you mean is P(A and B) = P(B|A) x P(A).

(unless I'm missing some context and we are assuming B is a subset of A, but if so I'm not sure why we are assuming that)

Sure! I just read it today, and I quite liked it! I'm a little unsure about timelines, but PM on Messenger and we can figure something out?

These are great and I like the naming.

Genre savviness.

Deliberate practice.

Scope sensitivity/napkinmath/shut up and multiply.

Checklists!

Something around an argument that proves too much, but this could be massaged into a more atomic concept maybe. (falsifiability? rent collection?)

A dispell for isolated demands for rigor.

and of course: Summon Sapience!

Direct link

Want more? Brainstorm more spells in the comments and I'll (likely) do more of these!