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simple toy example to make my point: if a crypto is 100k, and I'm 100% sure it will go to 200k, then I wouldn't want to correct a prediction market for any probability above 50% of reaching 200k as I would rather just invest in the crypto directly
afaiu, options are a better mechanism for that
and we should expect prediction markets to under estimate the probability an asset will grow (?)
yes, I was able to just bet implicit probabilities from options prices on prediction markets and have decent edge, but I was doing it for fun in play money markets and stopped when I got enough calibration data from it.