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O O's Shortform — LessWrong
O O's
Shortform
by
O O
3rd Jun 2023
1 min read
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O O
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Post your forecasting wins and losses for 2023.
I’ll start:
Bad:
I thought the banking crisis was gonna spiral into something worse but I had to revert within a few days sadly
overestimated how much adding code execution to gpt would improve it
overconfident about LK99 at some points (although I bet against it but it was more fun to believe in it and my friends were betting on it)
Good:
tech stocks
government bond value reversal
meta stock in particular
Taylor swift winning times POTY
random miscellaneous manifold bets (don’t think too highly of these because they were safe bets that were wildly misprinted)
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