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While I mostly did it out of support and reducing x-risk, pre-ordering “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” has been one of the more frustrating book order experiences I've had. The main purpose of the order looks to be successful enough and the actual book experience doesn't matter all that much but still:
I pre-ordered in mid May as soon as I heard about it, and since then it's been months of nearly everyone on the Internet having already read it, then later pre-order prices (barely relevant) were lowered which seems a bit backwards, and now that it's been 'out', I still don't have the book (or even estimated shipping - from Amazon, Germany) while everyone else who hadn't posted about it has now been posting reviews etc.
This is kind of annoying, as I'm not reading any of the commentary now - reading the book firsthand when I've already pre-ordered it would seem to make more sense, but by the time I even get it, It'd be far after most of the initial conversation happened so at this point I'm having a worse experience for having pre-ordered it.
Again, that experience is not that important, I've benefited a lot from Eliezer's other writting before etc. but it's disappointing enough to vent in at least one comment before taking the L and moving on.
I pre-ordered in mid May as soon as I heard about it, and since then it's been months of nearly everyone on the Internet having already read it
Wait what? I don't think almost anyone got to read it before it came out. My model is maybe a total of like 50 pre-order copies were sent out. Maybe 100? Definitely not anything close to "nearly everyone on the internet".
This from June lists a lot of people who have read it, including Stephen Fry, Grimes, professors etc. Seperately on Twitter seemingly anyone who was someone in the scene had given their opinion after having read it.
Any thread from the first announcement onward had people saying they've read it already. From the same thread (and that was early on)
Many people (like >100 is my guess), with many different view points, have read the book and offered comments.
Note that IFP (a DC-based think tank) recently had someone deliver 535 copies of their new book to every US Congressional office.
More endorsements and there's also a lot of twitter personalities that had mentioned reading it, which I wont hunt. It definitely felt like a lot more than 50. I'm not arguing it's a bad or good strategy, just that it's felt a bit off to wait for months for a 'pre-order' when anyone who I might see on Twitter and would've been interested to have read it already has.
Almost no one I know who wasn't working directly with MIRI on the book launch had read it, so it certainly didn't feel that way for me!
Many people (like >100 is my guess)
Around 100 seems vaguely right to me (if you count people working on the launch), though this quote was still an update for me!
I am in the same situation as you (pre-ordered from Germany, no delivery date yet). In the mean time I have just listened to the audio book on Spotify.
One of the reasons why it's plausible that today's or tomorrow's LLMs can result in brief simulations of consciousness or even qualia is that it happens with dreams in humans. Dreams are likely some sort of processing of information/compression/garbage collection, yet they still result in (badly) simulated experiences as a clear side-effect of trying to work with human experience data.
The only appealing answers to why there is something instead of nothing for me currently are
1. MUH is true, and all universes that can be defined mathematically exist. It's not a specific something that exists but all internally consistent somethings.
or
2. The default state is nothing but there are small positive and negative fluctuations (either literally quantum fluctuations or similar but at a lower level) and over infinite time those fluctuations eventually result in a huge something like our and other universes.
Also even If 2 happens only at the regular quantum fluctuations level, there's a non-zero chance of a new universe emerging due to fluctuations after heat death, which over infinite time would mean it is bound to happen and a new universe/rebirth of ours from scratch will eventually emerge.
Also 1 can happen due to 2 if the fluctuations are at such a low level that any possible mathematical structure eventually emerges over infinite time.
Option 1 doesn't seem to be an explanation. It tells you more about what exists ("all universes that can be defined mathematically exist") but it doesn't say why they exist.
Option 2 is also problematic, because how can you have a "fluctuation" without something already existing, which does the fluctuating?
They are not full explanations, but as far as, I at leat can get.
>tells you more about what exists
It's still more satisfying, because a state of ~ everything existing is more 'stable' than a state of a specific something existing, in exactly the same way as to why I even think nothing makes more sense as a default state than something to be asking the queston. Nothing existing, and everything existing just require less explanation than a specific something existing. It doesn't mean it necesserily requires 0 explanation.
And, if everything mathemetically describable and consistent/computable exists, I can wrap my head around it not requiring an orgin more easily, in a similar way why I don't require an orgin for actual mathematical objects, but without it seeming like necesserily a Type error (though that's the counterargument I most consider here) like with most explanations.
>because how can you have a "fluctuation" without something already existing, which does the fluctuating
That's at least somewhat more satisfying to me because we already know about virtual particles and fluctuations from Quantum Mechanics, so it's at least a recognized low-level mechanism that does cause something to exist even while the state is zero energy (nothing).
It still leaves us with nothing existing over something overall in at least one way (zero energy), is already demonstratable with fields, which are at the lowest level of what we already know of how the universe works and which can be examined and thought about furtther.