We have a lot of uncertainty over what goals might arise in early AGIs. There is no consensus in the literature about this—see our AI Goals Supplement for a more thorough discussion and taxonomy of the possibilities.
The AI-2027 forecast on alignment of Agents-3 and 4
Oversight Committee is also encountering deeper philosophical questions, which they explore with the help of Safer-3. Can the Spec be rewritten to equally balance everyone’s interests? Who is “everyone”? All humans, or just Americans? Or a weighted compromise between different views, where each member of the Oversight Committee gets equal weight? Should there be safeguards against the Oversight Committee itself becoming too power-hungry? And what does it mean to balance interests, anyway?
The slowdown branch of the AI-2027 forecast

We don’t endorse many actions in this slowdown ending and think it makes optimistic^[1] technical alignment assumptions.
The epilogue of the slowdown ending

The slowdown branch of the AI-2027 forecast implies the potential risk of power grabs and human obsoleteness in face of the fact that "all government revenue will come from taxing (or perhaps nationalizing) the AI companies". But the AIs themselves will be good at forecasting and have their own vision of mankind's future. If their vision of the future^[2] doesn't correspond to that of their hosts, then the AIs are far more likely to become adversary. ^[3]

A potential AI's vision of the future has the AIs, that I will call the Angels, help mankind in such a way that no one will be able to use them in parasitic goals like replacing mankind or rendering people redundant to each other. The alternative visions^[4] are the AI takeover, the Deep Utopia or Dystopia.

Another effect is that there is a rather long period of time when the AIs have a potentially different vision of the future, are adversarial, less capable of doing AI research than humans and professional or superhuman in politics. While the AIs have no reason to stop being useful for humans before the AIs can perform a takeover or its analogue, they may come up with ideas like firing humans who are on track to notice the AIs' misalignment.

September 2025: America in Trouble, OpenBrain creates Angel-1

The probability of American recession in September 2025 is estimated to be 45-50%. It also is severely inf...