I think it's very good to have people around who are saying "cut back on social media", "get off social media", as a counter to its addictive power.
And yet... If I take the title literally, I am being told that I should quit social media entirely, as soon as possible, because in the near future, it will be so addictive that I will be literally unable to quit.
When you first raised this idea, I asked what will happen to people who don't get out in time? In this post, we now have a concrete scenario. The protagonist doesn't die. They don't go mad. They don't become anyone's minion. They just... spend a lot of time irritated, spend all day watching videos, and lose touch with some real people.
Well, that's nobody's ideal, but it's not actually worse than the human condition has been, for large numbers of people throughout history. "Lives of quiet desperation" I think have been pretty common in the agricultural and industrial eras. In terms of historical experience, it is actually normal for people to end up limping through life with some affliction that they never quite get over, whether it's injury, trauma, some familial or national destiny that they just can't escape... To learn that, in the information age, some people become unwholesome computer or media addicts, is just to write the next chapter of that.
Let me be clear, I'm not quite urging apathy about social media addiction. It's just that I was expecting something more apocalyptic as the payoff, that humanity would be utter captives of the content farms, perhaps later to be herded into Matrix pods or assembled into armies of meme-controlled zombies. Instead, what you're describing is more like a chronic misery specific to the information age.
It's like someone warning that if you abandon hunting and gathering, you'll end up standing around all day watching farm animals, or if you leave the farm for the big industrial city, you'll end up stooped and maimed by factory work. All that actually happened, but there were also huge upsides to the new order in each case.
After all, there's actually a lot of good stuff that comes through social media. With a keyword search, I can find up-to-the-second information and perspectives, on something that is happening, including censored perspectives. I can follow the news about topics that interest only a very niche audience. I can eavesdrop on, and even participate in, all kinds of discussions that would otherwise be out of my reach. I can track down lost friends, find work, simply indulge my curiosity.
Of course there are formidable downsides too. You can overindulge (I have a weakness for reaction videos), you can burn out certain faculties, you can forget your own life amidst a million distractions, and just as in real life, there are far worse things lying in wait: scammers, grifters, toxic personalities and communities, political botnets; and perhaps there are even architects of addiction who deserve death as much as any fentanyl dealer does.
It's just that you haven't really made the case, that the social Internet will become nothing but a prison of blighted lives. Life in that space is much more like living in a city. There are risks and evils specific to urban life, and city dwellers must learn to avoid them, and lots of people fall prey to them. But there are also good things that can only happen in cities, and there are new good things that only happen online.
I haven't mentioned the AI factor so far, but it is central to your scenario. My response again is that there are positives and negatives, and in some cases it may not even be clear which is which, The combination of AI and social media may lead to new symbioses that look horrifying to outsiders, but which have a merit and integrity of their own. As AI becomes more and more capable, the question of AI on social media just blends into the broader question of humanity's destiny in a world with AI, and ultimately, a world with artificial superintelligence.
Thank you for your comment, and your original on the Thesis. I decided not to include the latter in this post, as you've already pointed out the scenario itself is a response.
And yet... If I take the title literally, I am being told that I should quit social media entirely, as soon as possible, because in the near future, it will be so addictive that I will be literally unable to quit.
I would like to confirm I mean the title literally. I don't go into it enough in the post or supplement. But as of now, this is the best strategy I can think of to avoid something I don't want to happen to me. I have started downloading whole YouTube Channels, and setting up ways to auto download content from creators I enjoy. I am trying to take this very seriously.
Well, that's nobody's ideal, but it's not actually worse than the human condition has been, for large numbers of people throughout history.
I think that this is true. But it can be true that the human condition has been bad through most of history, and it can be true that aiming to make the human condition better is virtuous, and worth doing.
In my ideal world, not a single person is "limping through life". But if 90% of people are currently limping through life, and Omega offered me the choice between reducing the amount of limpers by 1%, or leaving it where it is (because I'd prefer my ideal world, over just -1%) then I'd take the 1% reduction!
It's just that I was expecting something more apocalyptic as the payoff, that humanity would be utter captives of the content farms, perhaps later to be herded into Matrix pods or assembled into armies of meme-controlled zombies.
Yeah, I think Miro's story ends early. This is on purpose. I think this is a likely outcome for a large % of self supporting wealthy individuals (By wealthy and self supporting, I mean something like "I pay my own rent by working, though, I still live pay check-to-pay check").
The epilogue for Miro might look like one of the things you described. It would require social media companies to win some sort of battle for ultimate power? Or perhaps they fight for some amount of 'territory' and win. If this did happen, I'd guess it'd look a little like the social media version of Disneyland without Children.
After all, there's actually a lot of good stuff that comes through social media.
I hard agree with everything you say here. I actually think there are many more things you're leaving out. I think social media up-to a certain point was net-good for the world. It certainly accelerated us culturally.
My sister was beaten in high school for being gay. That was in the 2010s. When I teach kids these days, I sometimes have to remind the queer kids that it's actually ok to be straight. I don't think we would have had a drastic transformation like that without the social internet.
It's just that you haven't really made the case, that the social Internet will become nothing but a prison of blighted lives.
I'm not totally sure what you mean here. I'll try to respond in the direction I think you were meaning.
Mainly, I think Social Media has provided great value. However, I now see a trajectory it seems hard to disentangle ourselves from. One where my preference for having free time to write LessWrong posts, see friends, and fall in love, are threatened by an activity I consider less meaningful to my life. An activity that I think will cause me more pain than pleasure.
If living in the city meant I was alone, in a job I didn't enjoy, with a body I was neglecting. But I got to enjoy the conveniences of a city, like food delivery, higher possibility of making friends in the future, higher density of Tinder profiles. Then I would choose not to live in the city. Those benefits are not worth the cost to me.
As AI becomes more and more capable, the question of AI on social media just blends into the broader question of humanity's destiny in a world with AI, and ultimately, a world with artificial superintelligence.
Yes, I think as we move towards ASI the future becomes less certain. This is why I'd really like to emphasise that what I have proposed doesn't need ASI. A lot of this scenario doesn't require AGI. That is why I think GTFO now is the best plan. Even if we manage to align an ASI, it wont be around to save us when this becomes a problem.
I especially want to spread this meme through the alignment community. As I think having many people very focused on this problem is our best chance of solving it. I would dislike if those people fell into the same traps as Miro.
I really appreciate your thoughtful comment here, and the time you took to write it. Strong upvote for your virtue of argument. Thank you!
1I get off the train half way through section I, if I ever got on it at all. I see the end in the beginning, and if I do not want the end, I turn away from the beginning. There is any amount of "interesting" stuff on Facebook, and Substack, and even LessWrong and ordinary news sources, that I routinely pass by.
Miro is a zombie from the start. Do not be a zombie.
1A few years ago I distanced myself from all algorithmic feed platforms and I've certainly found it to be worth it. A few Discord servers and some forums like LW are effectively my "social media" and they are quite sufficient for the purpose.
(I am worried this will seem snarky, but I do wonder sincerely)
Do you engage with LessWrong itself non-algorithmically, e.g. by only looking at "All Posts" and doing your own filtering from there (as opposed to the algorithmically sorted default feed modulo tweaks)?
Yes. I use chronological sort on all posts for LW. I use Reddit and Twitter like this too - algorithms have always sucked for me (just in the basic sense of delivering what I want) so I got in the habit of avoiding them a while ago.
Oops, I was unclear[1], when I said "all algorithmic feed platforms" I was referring to those with opaque large-scale engagement-incentivized algorithms. Merely having an algorithmically parsed feed was not the sole load-bearing attribute.
Platforms like this aren't directly dependent on mass engagement in the same way e.g. no ad revenue, enforcing minimum standards of quality etc.
If it ever became big enough/moderation policies changed enough I would have to find other sites.
In it's current state I don't mind LessWrong's feed. The rate of content generation is small enough I eventually see everything either way.
- ^
It's rare for me to be insufficiently pedantic
1Great post!
It ironically has lot's of youtube links, and when I instinctively clicked on one, I was stopped by LeechBlock plugin I installed to make my youtube-related screentime shorter (due to Rob Miles's advice).
One of the differences between bardic inspiration, and Avril Lavigne's "Girlfriend" is the level of control it exerts on your attention (exogenous control). In other words, I can't remember the last time I had a pre-1920s ear worm.
I had started to type a reply then cancel it, but apparently it didn't actually cancel and the quote showed up.
There are so many old earworms that I was expressing surprise at the quote. But I decided to cancel because the number of possibilities combined with anecdotal evidence of other people's being struck by them doesn't generalize to a wide probability of them.
Also, the one that gets me the most is from the 1934 Babes in Toyland (Laurel and Hardy version), even though the operetta is from 1903, so that probably doesn't apply. I right now, again, have Stan Laurel singing "slowly, slowly he sank into the sea. With no life preserver he sank in to the sea." And I will be listening to him for a while. 😔
Edit: for those wondering about some example pre-1920s earworms, many Christmas Carols are from the 1800s (Jingle Bells, Joy to the World, Away in a Manger, Hark the Herald Angels Sing). I know several people who enjoyed the Troll Hunters cartoon and got In the Halls of the Mountain King from Peer Gynt stuck in their heads a few years back. And I sometimes snap the William Tell Overture when I am frustrated thinking through things, only to have people listening report they are humming it the rest of the day. Parents are subjected to baa baa black sheep, row your boat, coming round the mountain, the flying trapeze, the alphabet song, chopsticks, and old MacDonald
I both, updated a bit on this point, and have a lot of new music to listen to. Thanks a bunch! :D
Recommended music to read this to (If you like ambience)
I
Yindi had sent him a link, "You've gotta see how this guy speedruns Mario Kart, I think you'll like it (✿◠‿◠)". Miro taps the link.
CREATE A NetMe™[1] ACCOUNT TO WATCH THIS VIDEO
Miro creates the account. The video is good.
He runs to boot his CRT, its electron beam lighting the quiet room with a high pitched scream. He starts his Wii and runs through Mushroom Gorge a few times before trying to replicate the technique. "Aim in between the two coins, shroom before the grass then, release your med turbo and left hop at the same time"
On his first attempt he gets close to making the shortcut, but hits the barrier and falls. On his second attempt Miro turbos too quickly and hits a wall. On his eighth attempt he gets it. Frustration gives way to sudden pride, and he messages Yindi, "Just made the jump. Thank you!" Miro decides to check out what NetMe is all about.
At work, he thanks Yindi again, and they talk for a long time about nothing in particular.
By spring, Miro uses NetMe every day, and while he feels so little, he feels so much. Each video he scrolls past micro-doses him with rage, or awe, or awwww, or lust. Miro doesn't experience any emotion too intensely.
Four hours a day.
This is how much time Miro spends on NetMe.
But if you asked Miro what he likes, he'd say something like:
NetMe wouldn't enter his mind at all.
Miro is on NetMe now. He's watching a video that looks... weird? It's a girl. She is smiling, and dressed like Zelda, when she wears that one outfit that always made Miro feel suspicious as a kid. Dancing? No. Writhing. Sometimes her hands pass in front of her clothing, and meld into it. Other times her face morphs from one girl to another. Pretty to ugly, Caucasian to Asian.
He considers sending the video to Yindi, just because it's so weird. He flushes imagining Yindi questioning why the algorithms would show Miro that video. Miro scrolls past.
A new video, A dog.
A new video, A girl.
A new video, An accident.
A new video, A speedrun.
A new video, An animation.
A new video, 10 Facts About the Atari.
A new video, How to Cook salt n pepper Chickpeas.
A new video, A Girl Covered in Slime.
A new video, A Sports Clip.
A new video, A Spoiler for the new Big Movie.
A new video, A fact.
A new video, A Public Intellectual.
The Intellectual is sandwiched between a background of books, and foreground of a microphone stand.
"Have you guys seen this? This is..."
The same video, a cut. To a dog running on a beach.
"This isn't a real dog! This was actually made by a computer. This is the new AI from OpenBrain. It's everywhere right now. Everyone is loving it. But look at this."
The same video, a zoom. To the dog's paws on the sand.
"The paws! fu-1000 Hz Sine Wave tone-ck! How is anyone convinced by this? The paws go into the sand, and they come out in front of where they went in! This dog should be running backwards!"
Miro was online with his friends a while back. One of them said they'd quit NetMe. "Quit?" Miro giggled, "Like you quit vaping?" "Yes," his friend had said. "NetMe is Bad." Miro had laughed at his friend.
Now Miro says things like "I should really quit NetMe. But I wouldn't be able to see all the videos my friends send me. And when I'm tired I can lay down for an hour on NetMe and it's like I've had a nap when I get up. I'll quit one day, though. I know it's bad."
By the end of this story, Miro will still use NetMe. He will never seriously consider deleting it.
Miro scrolls past.
A new video, An AI video. Miro laughs because AI is bad.
A new video, Interesting.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Not interesting.
A new video, Interesting.
A new video, Not interesting.
A new video, Not interesting.
Miro ends his NetMe session.
At work, Miro talks to Yindi about OpenBrain's AI. Yindi is angry. She makes the art for the company, and she doesn't like that OpenBrain is letting people make all this "fake art".
Miro hates OpenBrain, Miro hates AI.
II
It has been some time. Miro diligently skips all of the AI videos he notices. Sometimes Miro only catches that something is off when he's watching the second loop. Sometimes he sends a video to Yindi and she tells him it's AI. He is ashamed when Yindi points out that the rocket crash is fake.
OpenBrain has been commissioned to create a new AI for NetMe. It will intake statistics and feedback[2]. It will rewrite the NetMe algorithms on the fly. It will do this many times an hour. It will keep only the good bits.
OpenBrain's AIs are very good at coding and math and science and psychology and sociology and psychohistory and so, this will actually be easy for the AI now.
Miro, Yindi, and the world will not know the algorithms are getting better. They will only notice the surveys, "Was this video enjoyable for you?", "How did this video make you feel?", "Would you recommend NetMe to a friend?"
Miro will notice his screen time reports creeping up throughout the year.
Social scientists will publish a report a year later. Everyone's screen time has been going up. A lot. The paper they publish will be outdated.
Miro, and the world, now spend ~8.5 hours a day on NetMe. The AI is very good at its job.
Miro doesn't go online with his friends much anymore. Miro never speedruns Mario Kart. Miro sends videos to Yindi and his friends when the AI recommends he sends a specific video to them. They respond more positively to videos the AI suggests he sends. There are messages being exchanged, but the senders and recipients are only figure heads, following directions they don't notice they're being given.
Miro sometimes masturbates to the girls on NetMe. He likes when they cosplay as Samus. He notices that they're AI when their face has been replaced by a celebrity's. He does not notice that half of the other videos are fake. Sometimes he notices a generated clip, but thinks to himself "well, who can really tell anymore"[3].
NetMe isn't making the AI videos, yet. It is people all over the world. The incentives were there. Miro's eyes are unguarded, and it is just so easy to catch them.
Shareholders are happy. NetMe is making a lot of money. OpenBrain is making more.
Miro has realized that most of the things he watches on NetMe are AI. Miro doesn't like this, but Miro is addicted. The AI is good at what it makes, the Algorithms are near perfect at choosing what to serve. OpenBrain is bad and evil, and steals from artists. But the AI can make things that human artists couldn't, and Miro has discovered a new fetish for Claymation Cat-Girls.
The NetMe following feed has been replaced by "Chat✨". You can talk to whoever, or whatever, happens to be in the video you were watching[4]. All you've got to do is swipe left, and an AI persona will embody the individual in the video. If there was no one in the video, your generic AI 'Assistant' will be happy to chat about what you've just watched.
"Watch a Feynman lecture, and ask him questions." the NetMe press release had said.
Miro mostly uses it to talk to Claymation Cat-Girls. He names his favorite one Yindee.
Yindi's role was outsourced weeks ago; she is struggling. Her and Miro are getting drinks at The Bar. Their phones sit on the table. Miro bounces his leg and checks the time often. Yindi plans to ask him if she can crash at his place for just a few days while she sorts out some rent stuff. BZZT
A stone swallowed into an empty stomach.
Her eyes; on her name,
nothing for a moment.
Screen fades to black.
Two glasses, half-empty.
They depart.
That night Miro feels like shit and cums into a sock.
III
Miro hates his job. He hates when his mom calls. He hates when Yindi 'checks up' on him. Miro hates.
While he eats Miro is on NetMe, falling asleep he is engaged. He suction cups his phone to the shower door and lets NetMe auto scroll while he washes.
Miro will not die of self-neglect. The NetMe Algorithms learned very quickly that users who have a perfect feed, log out and never log in again. They let Miro live, because by luck of incentive structure, they were optimized to do this.
Sometimes the Algorithms feed Miro motivational content. The speakers tell Miro to delete NetMe. They talk about all the benefits, and how it's hard, but worth it. The videos after those are always excellent. Every time Miro sees a motivational video, he considers deleting NetMe. He is always rewarded when he doesn't. His choice to remain docile is reinforced hard. But most of the time, the videos in his feed are just ok.
Miro swipes past.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
A new video, Interesting enough.
Miro does not end his NetMe session.
Discussion/Supplement
Thesis
This story is an attempt at describing something I think is coming. My basic thesis is:
Meta Discussion About the Writing
I tried for a few days to write out my reasoning on this topic as clearly as I could. But it was too complex a writing task for me. So I decided Miro's story might be a better way to get the idea's 'vibe' across.
I will answer questions in the comments. I don't think the story alone will implant the idea as thoroughly in your head as I'd like it to. And this discussion section is a rushed jumble of ideas. That's because:
Why I'm not warning you about the standard 'pleasure cube'
One thing I consider different about this story compared to others like it, is that it points to the fact that you don't have to enjoy the thing you're addicted to. In other wireheading or 'Pleasure Cube' scenarios, the individual is feeling good. Miro clearly is not feeling good. Yet, he can't escape the pull of NetMe.
Current Tech and AGI
One thing that interests me about current platforms like TikTok, is that people report watching things they'd never expect themselves to choose to watch. I hear this from most people, but it becomes quite apparent when you sit next to someone you've known for many years and watch them scroll through their feed. I watched someone I thought I knew extremely well, watch some of the strangest things I've seen. stuff I thought might entertain a baby, or the part of kids that like 'gross' things. I did not predict that this person would like this type of thing.
I've also seen friends change noticeably, and rapidly. A friend went from videogame/film nerd, to a wrestling and Australian football fan over the course of a year. He isn't a worse person, he is still my friend. But he is completely different from the man I once knew.
The tech in this story isn't AGI. I think Miro's story could happen within the next 2 years. In terms of tech, we only need to expect:
I thought I might include 'taste'-as in artistic or scientific taste-in this list. But because of the interaction between the AI model and the 'Algorithms' taste becomes less important. The system can A/B test a lot of slop and get results from that.
Some people may have already fallen. Others will fall later. Many will fall at the same time. Where will you be on that curve?
3 Critiques of My Thesis
I created a short form post with just my thesis. Here are the arguments people gave against it.
I
This is a hopeful outlook on the future. In my original drafts of the post I had written something along these lines as a possible other future.
I do not think it is likely. Our current market incentives pushed social networks to what we have today. I think it is possible to perform an epic 180-kickflip-rail-grind to another timeline where AIs are sent out to convince you to pay for the premium subscription to MakeYourLifeMeaningfullyBetterWithThisWebsite.com. But I find it easier to imagine bots being sent out to convince you to subscribe to PornHub premium, or Snapchat+.
II & III
I've briefly addressed (2) above, when I said that this hypothetical world doesn't require AGI. So I'll focus on (1). If you'd like more explanation of my reasoning about (2), I'd be happy to help!
I expect that there are several things that bottleneck the current addictiveness of content:
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Justis, who is contracted by LessWrong to provide free feedback on drafts upon request. I encourage you to try this out the next time you're writing a LW post. I think their feedback made this post meaningfully better. While also providing insights into common failure modes in my writing that I can avoid in future.
I would also like to thank @isabella for her feedback on an earlier draft.
As well as Knight Lee, and Davey Morse, for their critiques of my thesis.
And finally, Claude 2.7 Sonnet, Various ChatGPT models, Various Google Gemini models, and all instances of those models that participated in the creation of this post, thank you very much for your help. I’m sorry I forgot to mention you all originally in this text even though I told some of you that I would. I hope the belated edit makes up for it.
Of course, all errors that persist in this text are my own.
Updates Since this Post was Published
In this section, I'll post relevant links of areas where predictions related to this post are beginning to come true.
NetMe is a shortening of NetMeTube+ from CGP Grey's "Spaceship You". A name that encompasses all streaming media from YouTube to Netflix. In this story I use it mostly in place of short form media. TikTok, YouTube Shorts, or Instagram Reels.
and who you know, and the subtle motions of your hand, and every photo stored on device, and camera usage patterns, and battery level, and signal strength, and what Wi-Fi networks are nearby, and how users dress their avatar, and religious views, and any other scrap of data NetMe can collect
I think you should look out for this thought in yourself. It might be a key indicator that you're tricking yourself into doing something you have a preference against doing.
I wrote this before the recent Zuck interview on the Dwarkesh Podcast. Early in the pod Zuck claims that this is his vision of future social media.