No link, no mention of what Modafinil is or why I should care, not even a name of the insurance company? You haven't even assigned a likelihood to your prediction, which leaves it unworthy of Predictionbook, never mind a LW post.
Wikipedia link added, you should care if you had been considering using the drug but if you have then my post has immediate actionable value, I would rather not disclose the name of my insurance company, >50% for elite schools.
Indeed. Modafinil is already a somewhat popular study drug, so there may be no major increase from any price drop - not that I know how one would quantify uptake since college surveys tend to be one-offs...
There is a huge black market in Adderall at my college but, to the best of my knowledge, none in Modafinil.
Probably because Adrafinil is still unscheduled and essentially the same thing, nobody really is that worried about paying a premium for modafinil. I've been buying adrafinil for a little over 2 dollars per dose. Modafinil is better for everyday use (more liver stress with adrafinil) especially if you can get a scrip, but "study aids" are normally not taken every day anyway.
Lol no. Adrafinil is a prodrug of modafinil, currently unscheduled in the US. Adderall is extremely scheduled. ;)
This is more expensive than some existing online sources, per gwern's writeup; it does avoid concerns about purity (reasonable) and legal risk (seemingly groundless).
Interesting. Due to ADHD, I've been prescribed modafinil, and I've been prescribed various amphetamines (including adderall). My own experience is that the modafinil seemed to stop working after a while; it definitely did not seem as helpful as the amphetamines. Of course I'm just one case, and there are any number of reasons my own self-observations could be unreliable, but the drug industry does have a history of frequently making unfounded claims about the superiority of more profitable new drugs over less profitable old drugs, so I'm always fairly skeptical of newish drugs anyway.
[additional note: I just checked gwern's writeup, and discovered that tolerance is apparently a known issue with modafinil; it's not just me.]
Modafinil is now being covered by at least one insurance company in Massachusetts under which it costs less than $1 for a 200 MG pill. I predict a huge college black-market trade in the drug.