This is a special post for quick takes by Lao Mein. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
Some times "If really high cancer risk factor 10x the rate of a certain cancer, then the majority of the population with risk factor would have cancer! That would be absurd and therefore it isn't true" isn't a good heuristic. Some times most people on a continent just get cancer.