Consider two future technologies.
For technology A:
- The underling physical laws governing it are fully understood.
- A blueprint for the technology is available and the universal consensus of scientists is that this blueprint will work.
- A worldwide consortium of scientists has undertaken to build the technology and are funded tune of $10B's
For technology B, none of this is true:
- There is no agreement on the underlying rules describing how and whether the system will work
- The general consensus is that existing blueprints will not work no matter how much they are scaled up
- The largest projects are in the $10M's of dollars and are frequently deemed "too expensive"
Which of these technologies would you expect to be developed first?
I would argue, based on this evidence, that AGI is no closer (and probably in fact much further) away than Commercial Nuclear Fusion. I furthermore suspect there is less than a 50/50 chance that nuclear fusion will achieve "positive energy" by ITER's 2035 target.