A lot of your ideas suffer from the problem of trust and value of trade. All of these are hard to do the math to calculate the conditional expected value.  A lot depends on the specific counter-party and their distribution of beliefs about timelines and impact, as well.

Can you describe what specific timeline you want to bet on and what the even-money-equivalent longer-timeline you're seeking to bet against is?  What timeline should make someone indifferent to your wager (and therefore, a longer timeline or weighted mean timeline estimate would make it attractive to bet against you)?

I'm not sure exactly the profile of people you want to convince of short timelines, but I'll assume it's close to mine: researcher on AI safety with funding/job (the latter being better for launching a sustainable project) that updated on short timelines with some recent developments, but not as much as you apparently did.

Here is how I feel personally about your proposals:

• Option 1 seems nice, because I don't have a platform, so I get free money for basically no cost. But a less selfish action would be to tell you to keep your money.
• Option 2 seems nice too, because I would be interested anyway for a timeline discussion, and I get free money. So same caveat of using your money optimally. (I am also under the impression that the people that are not interested/don't have the time for such discussions would probably ask for a decent amount of money, and I'm not sure it's worth it from your point of view).
• Option 3 is interesting. But I don't want to work on something that doesn't seem important and interests me, so I'm slightly afraid of committing myself for 5 years. And also, I'm not sure how interested you would be in the stuff I care about if the timeline is long. So I would be way more excited about this deal if I knew enough about both our research interests to guarantee that I'll be able to work on interesting things you care about and vice versa.
   

Under the condition that influence is still useful after a singularity-ish scenario, betting on percentages of one's net worth (in influence, spacetime regions, matterenergy, plain old money etc.) at the resolution time seems to account for some of the change in situation (e.g. "If X, you give me 1% of your networth, otherwise I give you 2% of mine."). The scenarios where those things matter not at all after important events seem pretty unlikely to me.

(Posting here because I expect more attention, tell me if I should move this to the previous question or elsewhere)