This is a special post for quick takes by davekasten. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
I think one thing that is poorly-understood by many folks outside of DC is just how baseline the assumption is that China is a by-default faithless negotiating partner and that by-default China will want to pick a war with America in 2027 or later.
(I am reporting, not endorsing. For example, it is deeply unclear to me why we should take another country's statements about the year they're gonna do a war at surface level)
I totally understand your point, agree that many folks would use your phrasing, and nonetheless think there is something uniquely descriptively true about the phrasing I chose and I stand by it.
Sufficient AI superiority will mean overwhelming military superiority. If we remain ahead in AI it won't matter what other countries do. I expect this effect will dominate the strategic landscape by 2027.