This is a special post for quick takes by davekasten. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
One point that maybe someone's made, but I haven't run across recently: if you want to turn AI development into a Manhattan Project, you will by-default face some real delays from the reorganization of private efforts into one big national effort. In a close race, you might actually see pressures not to do so, because you don't want to give up 6 months to a year on reorg drama -- so in some possible worlds, the Project is actually a deceleration move in the short term, even if it accelerates in the long term!