I think there's some important context to consider, the growing general crime paranoia of society. Personal-safety fear is apparently at a three-decade high https://news.gallup.com/poll/544415/personal-safety-fears-three-decade-high.aspx
People are as scared of the world now as they were during the 90s crime wave.
>WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty percent of Americans, the most in three decades, say they would be afraid to walk alone at night within a mile of their home. This indicator of crime fears last reached this level in 1993, when, during one of the worst crime waves in U.S. history, 43% said they would be afraid.
That doesn't explain any difference by itself (after all fears were high in the 70s and 80s when children could free roam a lot more), but just from casual reasoning it seems like a more difficult task to lower fear over child safety without confronting general fear over personal safety because they stem from a similar source. Like my brother in law who would spend his time listening to crime podcasts and those videos of Ring camera package thieves and other spooky stuff https://youtu.be/r-ViIM4eZiI?si=YwpkoQyiGNKSS2eS (5.8 million views!) and things like that. The ones who see videos of the cities and basically think every street in Chicago or Los Angeles are packed to the brim with violent homeless.
>Because that’s what they are. People. Some people take this too far. Only treat kids as peers in situations where that makes sense for that situation and that kid, but large parts of our society have gone completely bonkers in the other direction. For example:
I absolutely agree, I get along well with the children in my life because I respect them as individualized people, including my own children, and my nieces/nephews/etc. They are kids at the end of the day, inexperienced and immature versions of their future self but time and time again I find high expectations of conduct/work ethic/etc to be more successful than coddling. That doesn't mean no forgiveness (obviously I love my kids even if they don't clean up their mess!), but it does mean I expect them to clean up after themselves.
Also Japanese two year olds!! https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/apr/07/old-enough-the-japanese-tv-show-that-abandons-toddlers-on-public-transport are going out on minor errands, and ok maybe Western society doesn't need to be that permissive but certainly we can let young teens go out.
But ok, I think part of this isn't just safetyism and overcoddling but also car infrastructure and lack of good public transit. One thing I've noticed is that you simply *don't have a choice* here most of the time. I would sometimes have to walk 15-20 minutes home from high school and doing that required crossing a four lane road without a reliable crosswalk. Doable? Yeah, I obviously did it. But I'm not making any child of mine do something similar, it was terrifying and I always tried to get picked up/go with a friend/take the bus before I got my own car. And I have little choice now if they want to go to a friend's house or a school event or whatever random things, I either drive them, they walk on the extremely loud (basically just auditory waterboarding if you have sensory issues like me) and dangerous roads that sometimes won't even have sidewalks, or they take the public bus and spend like 2-3 hours getting to a place a 15 minute drive away (and filled with less savory people) that still requires walking the roads because bus stops are few and far between.
Even if I wanted to emulate Old Enough, I can't. I have no choice in the matter, my main limiting feature here is not culture or law currently, it is city planning design. There are very few places where this isn't true, and those are almost always very expensive because turns out there's demand for the safe walkable neighborhoods even if we refuse to allow them.
One thing I’ve noticed is that you simply *don’t have a choice* here most of the time. I would sometimes have to walk 15-20 minutes home from high school and doing that required crossing a four lane road without a reliable crosswalk. Doable? Yeah, I obviously did it. But I’m not making any child of mine do something similar, it was terrifying and I always tried to get picked up/go with a friend/take the bus before I got my own car.
So, you do have a choice, and you’re choosing safety over freedom.
That may be the right choice, according to your values, or it may not. But you obviously do have the choice.
This sort of “we don’t have a choice” rhetoric is the source of a lot of the dynamics that the OP describes.
So, you do have a choice, and you’re choosing safety over freedom.
That may be the right choice, according to your values, or it may not. But you obviously do have the choice.
This sort of “we don’t have a choice” rhetoric is the source of a lot of the dynamics that the OP describes.
Yes I technically have a choice, I could tell my kids to suck it up and walk across multiple even busier roads, many of which don't even have sidewalks for a good portion of them. But technically having a choice there doesn't change anything about the complaint, after all I wouldn't need to make this choice if I could live somewhere more walkable!
I'm making a far riskier choice than the parents in Tokyo do when they let their kids walk to school, in part because the parents in Tokyo don't have their children walking down a sidewalkless street with cars going 40-50 right by them.
There's roughly a 1/132 chance of a person being injured in a car accident each year in the US using some quick math off of injury rates and population, and walking is apparently 36x more dangerous than driving so it's pretty heavily skewed towards them and I'm going to assume that's skewed even more heavily towards "Kids who routinely walk alongside a road without a sidewalk near cars going 40-50 mph". I wouldn't know the exact amounts, but that seems pretty substantial to me.
Of course, I already make the choice of freedom vs safety by driving them to begin with (although similar, it's skewed towards people who are drunk driving/using phone/speeding heavily/etc). So I know it's a choice. But it doesn't have to be one this awful!
There's a strange lack of discussion about grandparents in this thread.
I would love to see complementary data on the time that grandparents spend with their children. While parenting norms have definitely become more intensive, I can personally attest that things like multigenerational housing make that significantly more sustainable.
It would be much stronger evidence for parenting intensity norms changing if the sum of Parent Time + Grandparent Time + Tertiary Caregiver Time increased.
Side note: Lest Australians think we have it much better: https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/farnorth/2022/09/06/child-protection-week-4-10-september-what-age-is-a-good-age-to-leave-my-child-alone-at-home/
Did things get more dangerous since 1980, when we were mostly sane about this? No. They got vastly *less* dangerous, in all ways other than the risk of someone calling the cops.
The numbers on ‘sex trafficking’ and kidnapping by strangers are damn near zero.
Makes sense…
Here is the traditional chart of how little we let our kids walk around these days:
Terrible. Shameful!
… wait a minute…
takes a closer look at the map
Sheffield
Rotherham
Sufficiently talented minors *are* adults’ peers at intellectual work.
One example of this is that the current world chess champion became a grandmaster at age 12 and won his title when he was 18 years old.
Yes he did, but taken literally the statement is tautological. Did Zvi really mean it that way?
Take any population of kids whom you would intuitively agree to describe as “sufficiently talented”. Not “sufficiently talented” for something, but just “sufficiently talented” in a broad sense—say, the student population of some sort of magnet school. Now compare the median person in that population to Gukesh Dommaraju.
What does the latter tells us about the former, in terms of whether members of the former set are adults’ peers at intellectual work?
I agree that one person isn't very much evidence, but in general, the fact that there are many talented young chess players all up and down the distribution of chess ability, does seem like good evidence that children can become the intellectual peers of adults if they are put into a position to spend lots of time doing so.
For example, if you took the student population of a magnet school and put it up against the population of some random Google department, and gave them all three months to prepare for a chess tournament, I wouldn't consider the magnet school to be underdogs.
It's tautological it the number of such minors is allowed to be zero, so by the maxim of relevance he probably meant to suggest it is not negligible -- but not necessarily also that it is close to 50%, especially not 50% among the general population rather than just 50% among the children of the kind of people he is talking to and/or about.
(and "not negligible" is not a terribly high bar: if one kid in a million is like that, you only need 20 bits of evidence to know a particular kid is one of them)
One can imagine ‘good’ versions of all this tech, but right now it doesn’t exist. It seems crazy that it doesn’t exist? Shouldn’t someone sell it? Properly curated experiences that gave parents proper control and steered children in good ways seem super doable, and would have a very large market with high willingness to pay.
I'm having problems imagining the 'good' version because I can't imagine the business model working: you are competing with free. People round "free with externalities" to free, and see that as preferable to "paid for in a way that aligns incentives". The existence of a "free" option causes people to anchor and anchor hard that the value of a thing isn't worth paying for. People tend to not open their pockets for physical intangibles.
The only way I can imagine this working somehow is to try to copy how cosmetic micropayments exploit local social status; tying paying by parents into a social proof game among parents. But that just moves the unhealthy externalities away from the children (which is at least something), and once the social hierarchy where You Must Pay To Be A Good Parent is established, there's nothing preventing Goodhart from turning the whole system into CocoMelon 2 But This Time You're Directly Paying Us.
My (three) children are still young, so my perspective is limited, but it seems to me that the main concerns about screen time stem less from the screen-as-medium, itself, and more from applying the same sets of concerns to the virtual/media environment that are applied to the physical world -- that is, concerns about unsupervised children encountering potentially serious harms.
Some parents may face constraints such that it could be judged reasonable to turn their kids loose with a screen in order to do whatever else needs to get done. People live in a wide variety of imaginable and unimaginable circumstances. For me though, and for other folks fortunate enough to not face such constraints, screen time just shouldn't be unsupervised -- it should be modeled as something to be actively engaged with, and appropriately limited.
When I turn on a show for my kids, I sit and watch it with them unless it's both known to be "safe", and I have something I need to attend to in that moment. I often paraphrase dialogue so they can understand what's going on and being said ("she means what the other person did wasn't polite", "that's how they used to say they need to use the bathroom", etc), or ask them questions about it ("do you think they really meant they were surprised, or that they only said they were in order to hide being afraid?", "how do you suppose they get the camera into the mole burrows like that, and without scaring the moles?", etc), and if I've chosen something with scenes that either have adult themes they don't need yet, or it's one of those cartoon movies that seemed contractually obligated to include a traumatic scene, I simply skip it in the moment, and if anything important to the plot happened in that section, I'll explain what it was. Just because it's there doesn't mean you have to sit and take it.
Honestly, the same is true for chapter-book bedtime stories.
And Cocomelon certainly has a presence, but averaging out to a rate of about one per day at its peak. It's a way to listen to songs sung by better voices than mine, though I almost always sing along, to show that singing is something to participate in, not just take in. It's also been a way to learn new songs, or song-motions, to then to together at other times or in the car. Some of the activities the too-smooth-looking kids get up to in the videos have also been taken as inspiration for things to do in real life: make "rainbow popsicles", make a box into a train and push it around, etc.
In that way, it flows pretty naturally with the other snippets of media they get with me: kid-safe sections from movies like Dune or Jurassic Park (for the visuals and for the bigger plot-themes about bravery, hubris, etc), videos of unique creations like Wintergatan's Marble Machine or Theo Jansen's Strandbeest, rocket launches, of course, and even slice-of-life videos like "Kids in Other Countries" (https://www.kiocs.org/).
I wonder whether the “treat children as intellectual adults” idea applies to entertainment also- for example, USCSB and HAI videos are
Letting kids be kids seems more and more important to me over time. Our safetyism and paranoia about children is catastrophic on way more levels than most people realize. I believe all these effects are very large:
This should be thought of as part of the Cost of Thriving Index discussion, and the fertility discussions as well. Before I return to the more general debate, I wanted to take care of this aspect first. It’s not that the economic data is lying exactly, it’s that it is missing key components. Economists don’t include these factors in their cost estimates and their measures of welfare. They need to do that.
I want a distinct marker for this part of the problem I can refer back to, thus this will include highlights of past discussions of the issue from older roundups and posts.
Why are so many people who are on paper historically wealthy, with median wages having gone up, saying they cannot afford children? A lot of it is exactly this. The real costs have gone up dramatically, largely in ways not measured directly in money, also in the resulting required basket of goods especially services, and this is a huge part of how that happened.
Bryan Caplan’s Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids focuses on the point that you can put in low effort on many fronts, and your kids will be fine. Scott Alexander recently reviewed it, to try and feel better about that, and did a bunch of further research. The problem is that even if you know being chill is fine, people have to let you be chill.
On Car Seats as Contraception is a great case study, but only a small part of the puzzle.
This is in addition to college admissions and the whole school treadmill, which is beyond the scope of this post.
We have the Housing Theory of Everything, which makes the necessary space more expensive, but not letting kids be kids – which also expands how much house you need for them, so the issues compound – is likely an even bigger issue here.
Current Insanity Levels
The good news is, at least when this type of thing happens it can still be news.
Remember, this is not ‘the kid was forcibly brought home and the mother was given a warning,’ which would be crazy enough. The mother was charged with ‘child neglect’ and was being held in jail on bond.
A civilization with that level of paranoia seems impossible to sustain.
These objections can be absolute, in this next case at least they didn’t arrest anyone:
Those are the most recent ones, here are some flashbacks (remember when I used italics?).
Update on that friend: They did indeed move out of New York for this reason, and then got into trouble for related issues when they were legally in the right, because that turns out not to matter much if the police decide otherwise.
Here is the traditional chart of how little we let our kids walk around these days:
Scott Alexander goes into detail about exactly how dangerous it is to be outside, but all you need to know is that not only is it not more dangerous today, it is dramatically safer now than it ever was… except for the danger of cops or CPS knocking at your door.
What we need continue to need are clear, hard rules for exactly what is and is not permitted, where if you are within the rules you are truly in the clear and if the police or others hassle you non-trivially there are consequences for the police and others.
The Result of This
Then from BLS:
Even secondary care is a dramatic reduction in flexibility and productivity. And we’re talking about a total of 7.4 hours per day, with 19 hours on weekends between both parents. That’s full time jobs. Weekends are supposed to be break time, but often they’re not anymore.
If we assume that the BLS statistics Scott cites are accurate, and that the ratios in the first graph are also accurate, and that the trends are likely continuing and should be expected to continue getting worse, this is a nightmare amount of supervision time.
Some Progress on Letting Kids Be Kids
Some good news, Georgia passes the Reasonable Childhood Independence bill, so there are now 11 states with such laws: Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Montana, and Virginia.
This was triggered in part because Brittany Patterson was arrested for letting her 10 year old walk to a store, along with a few other similar cases.
The problem for parents like John McLaughin and Brittany Patterson is, random safetyists will still call the police, and when they do the police often simply ignore such laws, as my friend found out in Connecticut. Even when the conduct in question is explicitly legal, that often won’t save you from endless trouble, and if things get into the family courts you absolutely get punished if you try to point out you didn’t do anything wrong and are forced to genuflect and lie.
CPS Cares
Ultimately, this all comes down to tail risk. You can’t do obviously correct fully sane things, if there’s even a tiny chance of the law coming in and causing massive headaches, or even ruining your life and that of your children.
The amount of paranoia about having your child taken away, or potentially (see above cases) the parent even being outright arrested, has reached ludicrous levels, mostly among exactly the people who you do not want worrying about this. Even a report that causes no action now can be a big worry down the line.
And the reports are very common. Consider that 37% of children are reported, at some point, to CPS, this is from my Childhood Roundup #3, which also has more CPS examples in it:
So what could we do about this?
It seems like there is a very easy, very clear way to distinguish between the horrible cases we’re talking about where children are lacking very basic needs or something truly horrible is happening, where CPS apparently often still has trouble making the removal stick, and cases of safetyism concerns since only 22% of cases are substantiated.
And yet here we are.
I mean, yeah, okay, fine, let’s say it’s 20k kids being kidnapped out of 75.2 million per year where there was nothing seriously wrong, often because of some other person’s safetyism paranoia followed by a capricious decision, and this is being used as essentially a terrorism campaign, and we’re down from 99.6% of kidnappings to 96%, with a lot of them basically justified by blaming the other 4%, despite most of the other 4% being from custodial disputes.
Still seems pretty not great, especially given what then happens to the kids.
I suppose one silver lining is that if you have a backup place for them in an emergency it’s a lot less bad? But still horribly bad.
Consider the discussion Scott Alexander has in his review of Bryan Caplan’s Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids.
You want to tell your kids, go out and play, be home by dinner, like your father and his father before him. But if you do, or even if you tell your kids to walk the two blocks to school, eventually a policeman will show up at your house and warn you not to do it again, or worse. And yes, you’ll be the right legally, but what are you going to do, risk a long and expensive legal fight? So here we are, and either you supervise your kids all the time or say hello to a lot of screens.
Panopticon
It’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
That’s unfortunately what parents want these days, partly for fear of law enforcement. And as this post documents, that fear of law enforcement is highly reasonable.
In situations like this, it is not obvious in which direction various powers go.
The powers can be used for good, even from a freedom perspective, in several important ways.
The other abilities are similarly double edged swords, and of course you don’t have to use your powers if you do not want them. The tricky one is monitoring messages, since you will be very tempted to use it, the kid will know this, and this means they don’t have a safe space, and also you know they can just make a phone call. I don’t love this part.
I can see saying you want to only monitor images, since that’s a lot of the potential threat model and relatively less of what needs to be private.
An actually good version is likely to use AI here. An AI should be able to detect inappropriate images, and if desired flag potentially scary text interactions, and only alert the parents if something is seriously wrong, without otherwise destroying privacy. That’s what I would want here.
I actively think it’s good to require approval on app downloads and contacts (and to then only let them message and call contacts), at whatever time you think they’re first ready for a phone – there’s clearly a window where you wouldn’t otherwise want them to have a phone, and this makes it workable. Later of course you will want to no longer have such powers.
They Even Close Playgrounds
New York City continues to close playgrounds on the slightest provocation, in this case an ‘icy conditions’ justification when it was 45 degrees out. Liz Wolfe calls this NYC ‘hating its child population.’ And that they tried to fine her when she tried to open a padlocked playground via hopping the fence.
I wouldn’t go that far, and I presume fear of lawsuits is playing a big part in these decisions. There has to be a way to deal with that. The obvious solution is to pass laws allowing the city to have a ‘at your own risk’ sign when conditions are questionable, but the courts have a nasty habit of not letting that kind of thing work – we really should do whatever it takes to fix that, however far up the chain that requires.
And that emphasizes that hopefully correct legal strategy is to padlock the playground, if legally necessary, and then if the parents evade that, you let them? Alternatively, the city hadn’t gotten around to reopening the playground yet, which obviously is a pretty terrible failure to prioritize – the value lost is very high and you still have to reopen it later. And it’s all the more reason to look the other way.
Liz notes that NYC’s under 5 population has fallen 18% since April 2020. I still think NYC is actually a pretty great place to raise kids if you can afford to do it, and I haven’t found the playgrounds to be closed that often when you actually want them to be open, but I certainly understand why people decide to leave.
How Did Things Get This Bad?
Thread where Emmett Shear asks how our insane levels of safetyism and not letting kids exist without supervision could have so quickly come to pass.
The safety arms race is related to and overlaps with the time investment arms race.
Even if you pass a ‘free range child’ or similar law requiring sanity, that largely doesn’t even do it, unless the police would actually respect that law when someone complains. Based on the anecdata I have, the police will frequently ignore that what you are doing is legal, and turn your situation into a nightmare anyway. And here’s Scott Alexander with another example beyond what I was referring to above:
Exactly. Scott’s proposed intervention of providing evidence of the law is fun to think about, and the experiment is worth running, but seems unlikely to work in practice.
The time investment arms race is totally nuts, father time spent is massively up too.
Again from Roundup #3:
Let Kids be Adults
They can handle a lot more than people think, remarkably often.
Not all 12 year olds, and all that, but yes. This is The Way, all around. Don’t simply not arrest the parents if the kids walk to the store, also let the kids do actual real things.
I mean, yeah, don’t start a restaurant, that never works out. Kids need to know.
Most of all:
Treat Kids Like People
Because that’s what they are. People. Some people take this too far. Only treat kids as peers in situations where that makes sense for that situation and that kid, but large parts of our society have gone completely bonkers in the other direction. For example:
I have heard enough different stories about MIT letting us down exactly in places where you’d think ‘come on it’s MIT’ that I worry it’s no longer MIT. The more central point is that peers are super great, confidants are great, and this is yet another example of taking away the superior free version and forcing us to pay for a formalized terrible shadow of the same thing.
Lowering the Burden
How do we more generally enable people to have kids without their lives having to revolve around those kids? How do we lower the de facto obligations for absurd amounts of personalized attention for them?
The obvious first thing is that we used to normalize kids being in various places, and how if you take your kids to almost anything people at best look at you like you’re crazy. We need to find a way to have them stop doing that, or to not care.
The thing is this also relies upon the children being able to handle it. My understanding is that we used to focus less attention on children, and also to enforce behavior codes on them that were there to benefit adults rather than the children, and got them used to being bored and having nothing to do, and also they got used to being able to play on their own.
While I don’t fully want to go back to that amount of boredom, I do think that it would be a fair and net worthwhile trade to have kids accept far more ‘bored time,’ or ‘here at an adult event they don’t fully understand and have to behave time,’ and to normalize that as good and right. We used to be willing to trade really a ton of kid bored time to save adult time, now we do the opposite. We need middle ground.
Screens
Phones in schools is beyond the scope of today’s post, but overall screen time is not. Screen time is one of the few ways to reduce the time burden on caregivers.
It’s another day, and the same screens moral panic we’ve been having for a long time?
We have had a moral panic about screens in one form or another since we had screens, as in television.
I reiterate, once again, that this panic was and is essentially correct. The TV paranoia was correct, it brought great advantages but the warnings of idiot box, ‘couch potato’ and ‘boob tube,’ and crowding out other activities and so on were very much not wrong.
Modern screens have even huger downsides and dangers, and most of what is served to our kids is utter junk optimized against them, which is what they will mostly choose if left alone to do so.
Even when you are careful about what they watch, and it is educational and reasonable, there are still some rather nasty addictive behaviors to watch out for.
One can imagine ‘good’ versions of all this tech, but right now it doesn’t exist. It seems crazy that it doesn’t exist? Shouldn’t someone sell it? Properly curated experiences that gave parents proper control and steered children in good ways seem super doable, and would have a very large market with high willingness to pay. The business model is different, but also kind of obvious?
Is it going to be fine the way it is? Yeah, sure, for some value of ‘fine.’ And with AI I’m actually net optimistic things will mostly get better on this particular front. But yeah, Cocomelon is freaking scary, a lot of YouTube is far worse than that, giving children access to tablets and phones early will reliably get them addicted and cause big issues, and pretending otherwise is folly.