Seeking Estimates for P(Hell)

by [anonymous] 1 min read21st Mar 201521 comments


I am trying to decide how to allocate my charitable donations between GiveWell's top charities and MIRI, and I need a probability estimate to make an informed decision.  Could you help me?

Background on my moral system: I place a greater value on reducing high doses of suffering of conscious entities than merely preventing death.  An unexpected, instant, painless death is unfortunate, but I would prefer it to a painful and chronic condition. 

Given my beliefs, it follows logically that I would pay a relatively large amount to save a conscious entity from prolonged torture.

The possibility of an AI torturing many conscious entities has been mentioned1 on this site, and I assume that funding MIRI will help reduce its probability.  But what is its current probability?

Obviously a difficult question, but it seems to me that I need an estimate and there is no way around it.  I don't even know where to start...suggestions?