I'm visiting Berkeley now and I walk past the local elementary school and I see all these kids running laps around the basketball court. Wearing masks. Gosh, PE class was bad enough back in my day... I talked to a high schooler walking by and they said that (in their school at least) they aren't officially required to wear masks but they all do it anyway. Even outdoors.

How long will this go on? I'm interested because if the answer is "years" this influences my choice of where to send my daughter to school. Presumably not every school district is like this.

I created a prediction market for (a variant of) this question: https://manifold.markets/DanielKokotajlo/will-most-boston-public-school-kids

(For context: I am pretty against kids wearing masks these days, especially outdoors. Because I think the amount of micromorts thereby prevented is really, really, ridiculously small, too small to justify the inconvenience. I'd be interested to see if anyone has crunched the numbers and come to a different conclusion. I haven't crunched the numbers myself recently.)