Every time I have an application form for some event, the pattern is always the same. Steady trickle of applications, and then a doubling on the last day.

And for some reason it still surprises me how accurate this model is. The trickle can be a bit uneven, but the doubling the last day is usually close to spot on.

This means that by the time I have a good estimate of what the average number of applications per day is, then I can predict what the final number will be. This is very useful, for knowing if I need to advertise more or not.

For the upcoming AISC, the trickle was a late skewed, which meant that an early estimate had me at around 200 applicants, but the final number of on-time application is 356. I think this is because we where a bit slow at advertising early on, but Remmelt made a good job sending out reminders towards the end.

Application deadline was Nov 17. 
At midnight GMT before Nov 17 we had 172 application. 
At noon GMT Nov 18 (end of Nov 17 anywhere-on-Earth) we had 356 application 

The doubling rule predicted 344, which is only 3% off

Yes, I count the last 36 hours as "the last day". This is not cheating since that's what I always done (approximately ^[1]), since starting to observe this pattern. It's the natural thing to do when you live at or close to GMT, or at least if your brain works like mine. 

1. ^{^}

   I've always used my local midnight as the divider. Sometimes that has been Central European Time, and sometimes there is daylight saving time. But it's all pretty close.