Is there some kind of "get prediction markets, or predictions, onto twitter as a central object" project going? If so, how is it going?

I'm thinking through "how to raise median sanity" on a world scale. There are several incentive and institutional problems that make this very difficult. One angle is "try to make it a thing that the world tracks and cares about your predictions, and getting them right/wrong."

Two past angles here were:

• Fact checker sites of the 90s/00s, which became politicized
• Prediction markets, which I feel like aren't a good fit for most of what people would/should care about here. Operationalizing them is extremely annoying.

An idea for a twitter feature, which I think Musk should conceptually like given his stated values, and, I think he might have enough inertia to get behind, is:

• When you make a prediction shaped tweet, it automatically gets converted into a prediction-y object*. AI suggests a few plausible operationalizations, or specific edge cases that seem likely to come up that you might want to address.
• People can "like" predictions, predictions with a lot of attention get more automated followup.
• Instead of resolving predictions with explicit careful operationalization, people vote on whether it seems like it resolved, and a community-notes-esque algorithm handles partisan disagreements.
• popular predictions automatically get AI-generated community-notes-eque followup in terms of collecting evidence.

So, the final result will give a succinct "do The People think this resolved true?", which is some kind of percentage score that takes into account "how much it seems true to people" (if it's ambiguous / on-a-spectrum), and controversial the answer is. (TODO: figure out good mathy operationalization that is robust to partisanship)

But then, immediately underneath that, is a list of citations/evidence, so even if something is ambiguous, it's as easy as possible to see concrete facts related to it. (Also with community-notes-esque voting on relevance)

"Have you successfully made good predictions" is a badge / leaderboard that is optimized to be fun and rewarding.

The "community-notes-for-vague-prediction-resolution" mechanic could be implemented by Manifold or Metaculus or LessWrong or whoever, but, I think it's a lot more useful if it's on twitter. (tho maybe good to test it out on these places to iron kinks out and prototype UI).

My impression of the landscape is "Musk did really care about but truth, and believes in community notes in particular, but also went crazy after buying twitter. The Community Notes team is a small fiefdom he trusts and still believes in." So, insofar as this is pitched as an extension of that, might be doable.

Curious about takes from @Zvi and @Austin Chen.