Hindsight Bias

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• Hindsight Bias
• Hindsight Devalues Science
• Stranger ThanRead History
• Beware the Unsurprised Of Philosophy Backwards

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Hindsight biasBias is a tendency to overestimate the foreseeability of events that have actually happened. I.e., subjects given information about X, and asked to assign a probability that X will happen, assign much lower probabilities than subjects who are given the same information about X, are told that X actually happened, and asked to estimate the foreseeable probability of X. Experiments also show that instructing subjects to "avoid hindsight bias" has little or no effect.

• Forecast
• Positive bias
• Debiasing
• Black swan

• Hindsight biasBias
• Hindsight Devalues Science
• Stranger Than History
• Beware the Unsurprised

See also

• Forecast
• Positive bias
• Debiasing

Hindsight bias is a tendency to overestimate the foreseeability of events that have actually happened. I.e., subjects given information about X, and asked to assign a prioriprobability that X will happen, assign much lower probabilities than subjects who are given the same information about X, are told that X actually happened, and asked to estimate the foreseeable probability of an eventX. Experiments also show that instructing subjects to "avoid hindsight bias" has actually happened.little or no effect.

• Hindsight bias
• Hindsight Devalues Science
• Stranger Than History

• Hindsight bias by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Hindsight Devalues Science by Eliezer_Yudkowsky

• Hindsight bias by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Hindsight Devalues Science by Eliezer_Yudkowsky