Ruby | v1.10.0Sep 25th 2020 | (+4/-4) | ||

Grognor | v1.9.0Mar 17th 2012 | (+10) | ||

Grognor | v1.8.0Mar 10th 2012 | (+64/-4) | ||

Eliezer Yudkowsky | v1.7.0Jan 25th 2010 | (+422/-32) rewrote summary | ||

Zack_M_Davis | v1.6.0Nov 16th 2009 | (-42) byline removal | ||

PeerInfinity | v1.5.0Sep 28th 2009 | |||

Vladimir_Nesov | v1.4.0Sep 23rd 2009 | |||

PeerInfinity | v1.3.0Sep 23rd 2009 | |||

PeerInfinity | v1.2.0Sep 8th 2009 | (+47) | ||

Vladimir_Nesov | v1.1.0Jul 15th 2009 | (+10/-34) lwwikified |

**Hindsight biasBias** is a tendency to overestimate the

**Hindsight bias** is a tendency to overestimate the *foreseeability* of events that have actually happened. I.e., subjects given information about X, and asked to assign a ~~priori~~probability that X will happen, assign much lower probabilities than subjects who are given the same information about X, are told that X actually happened, and asked to estimate the foreseeable probability of ~~an event~~X. Experiments also show that instructing subjects to "avoid hindsight bias" has ~~actually happened.~~little or no effect.