LESSWRONG
LW

853
Wikitags

Aumann's Agreement Theorem

Edited by Ruby, Vladimir_Nesov, Paul Crowley, et al. last updated 8th Feb 2025

Aumann's agreement theorem, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors, and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

Related tags and wikis: Disagreement, Modesty, Modesty argument, Aumann agreement, The Aumann Game

Highlighted Posts

  • The Modesty Argument
  • Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
  • The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
  • The Proper Use of Humility
  • Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
  • Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
  • Bayesian Judo

External Links

  • A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

See also

  • Disagreement
  • Modesty argument
  • Aumann agreement
  • The Aumann Game
  • Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"

References

  • (PDF)
  • (PDF, Talk video)
Subscribe
Discussion
1
Subscribe
Discussion
1
Posts tagged Aumann's Agreement Theorem
72Aumann-agreement is common
tailcalled
2y
33
141Hashing out long-standing disagreements seems low-value to me
So8res
3y
34
90Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
110
83Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
8y
18
62The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
19y
40
53Probability Space & Aumann Agreement
Wei Dai
16y
76
43Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
9y
13
34Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
10y
17
32The Error of Crowds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
13
27Fundamental Uncertainty: Chapter 3 - Why don't we agree on what's right?
Gordon Seidoh Worley
3y
22
23Scott Aaronson: Common knowledge and Aumann's agreement theorem
gjm
10y
4
22An explanation of Aumann's agreement theorem
Tyrrell_McAllister
14y
18
17The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
[anonymous]16y
156
14Aumann Agreement by Combat
roryokane
6y
2
14The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
17y
26
Load More (15/23)
Add Posts