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Underconfidence — LessWrong

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Underconfidence

Edited by bjr, PeerInfinity last updated 17th Mar 2012

You are viewing revision 1.3.0, last edited by bjr

Underconfidence is the state of being more uncertain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence you are aware of.

See Also

Fallacy of gray

References

Footnotes

Overcoming Bias Articles

"I don't know" by Eliezer Yudkowsky

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Posts tagged Underconfidence

4

122The Sin of Underconfidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky

17y

187

4

118Say Wrong Things

Gordon Seidoh Worley

7y

13

3

144Irrational Modesty

5y

6

2

212A Sketch of Good Communication

8y

36

2

83Status Regulation and Anxious Underconfidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky

8y

18

2

71Against Modest Epistemology

Eliezer Yudkowsky

8y

49

2

49Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot

Eliezer Yudkowsky

8y

3

2

46The Limits of Intelligence and Me: Domain Expertise

12y

79

2

37Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence

11y

6

2

28The Importance of Self-Doubt

multifoliaterose

15y

746

2

18A note about calibration of confidence

10y

35

2

12How confident should we be?

[anonymous]14y

19

1

36The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier

4y

2

1

16Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.

2y

5

1

7Thinking without priors?

4y

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