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Is Coronavirus active in Summer? — LessWrong

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[ Parent Question — Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread ]

Is Coronavirus active in Summer?

by Anton Lorenzen

1st Mar 2020

1 min read

33

It seems like the corona virus has spread mostly in cold climates on the northern hemisphere (in winter) and there are very few (confirmed) cases in Africa, South America and Australia. On the one hand the first two probably don't have the capabilities for testing on a large scale, but they should have it easier to detect the virus, since it can't be confused for the common cold. Could it be that the virus is transmitted (well) only in cold climates? And would that mean that the danger in Europe/the US will reduce drastically by May or June?

Is Coronavirus active in Summer?

3Daniel Kokotajlo

3Daniel Kokotajlo

3Daniel Kokotajlo

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Mar 02, 2020

80

Over the last week, basically every Middle Eastern country has banned travel from Thailand. They know something we don't. I have heard evidence that there are large numbers of viral pneumonia cases there that are not being tested or confirmed.

from where have you the information about travel ban from thailand? can you pls post the source?

[-]Daniel Kokotajlo7y30

Maybe they know something we don't. Or maybe they are just being cautious. Or maybe they are even overreacting. All I'm saying is, this is evidence but not strong evidence.

Steven Byrnes

Mar 05, 2020*

70

I don't think there's enough evidence on COVID19 to say much, but this blog post has suggestive evidence from Google Search Trends that previous coronavirus infections have dropped steadily over the course of March and April. (Presumably this data is dominated by the northern hemisphere.)

ETA: A much better idea is to read this blog post by someone who actually knows what they're talking about

Mar 01, 2020

60

We know it was spreading in Singapore. Average temperature there is 25-30C and humid. So I'm going to go with yes, but it might spread slower.

[-]Daniel Kokotajlo7y30

Spreading slower might be sufficient. If it spreads slowly enough, the containment methods already in place will work.

I was just looking at some table listing the countries, incident and deaths. One thing that did strike me and I'm not sure how to explain it is the Philippines. It reported its first case pretty early but no much spread since then.

They get a lot of Chinese and South Korean people -- both tourists and relocating to to business there. Even when it's "cold" there for the population most people from Europe or North America would say it is hot.

The Philippines is not really known as one of the most organized governments or one that has a goo... (read more)

2ChristianKl7y

The first death in the Philippines was a Chinese tourist as far as I understand.

2[anonymous]7y

Almost certainly lack of testing community acquired cases.

3Daniel Kokotajlo7y

Is that just your guess, or is it confirmed that they don't bother to test community members of infected people?

[-]Lukas_Gloor7y30

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