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Today, I uploaded a sequence of three working papers to my website at https://andershuitfeldt.net/working-papers/
This is an ambitious project that aims to change fundamental things about how epidemiologists and statisticians think about choice of effect measure, effect modification and external validity. A link to an earlier version of this manuscript was posted to Less Wrong half a year ago, the manuscript has since been split into three parts and improved significantly. This work was also presented in poster form at EA Global last month.
I want to give a heads up before you follow the link above: Compared to most methodology papers, the mathematics in these manuscripts is definitely unsophisticated, almost trivial. I do however believe that the arguments support the conclusions, and that those conclusions have important implications for applied statistics and epidemiology.
I would very much appreciate any feedback. I invoke "Crocker's Rules" (see http://sl4.org/crocker.html) for all communication regarding these papers. Briefly, this means that I ask you, as a favor, to please communicate any disagreement as bluntly and directly as possible, without regards to social co... (read more)
[Forgetting Important Lessons Learned]
Does this happen to you?
I'm not necessarily talking about mistakes you've made which have caused significant emotional pain, and you've learnt an important lesson from. I think these tend to be easier to remember. I'm more referring to personal processes you've optimized or things you've spent time thinking about and decided the best way to approach that type of problem. ...and then a similar situation or problem appears months or years later and you either (a) fail to recognize it's a similar situation, (b) completel... (read more)
Our local downvoter doesn't seem to have noticed that it doesn't have any effect on what is read or commented on as karma restrictions on posting also seem to have been lifted.
I wrote a thing that turned out to be too long for a comment: The Doomsday Argument is even Worse than Thought
Academic Publishing without Journals
By setting up the journals with a bitcoin type blockchain, you could reward reviewers, and citations. SciCred !
just a stub to think about
Has anyone else tried the new Soylent bars? Does anyone who has also tried MealSquares/Ensure/Joylent/etc. have an opinion on how they compare with other products?
My first impression is that they're comparable to MealSquares in tastiness. Since they're a bit smaller and more homogeneous than MealSquares (they don't have sunflower seeds or bits of chocolate sticking out of them), it's much easier to finish a whole one in one sitting, but more boring to make a large meal out of them.
Admittedly, eating MealSquares may have a bit more signalling value among ra... (read more)
Can anyone give a steelman version of Chomsky's anti-statistics colorless green ideas sleep furiously argument? The more I think about it, the more absurd it seems.
Here's my take on Chomsky's argument:
Naively, this seems plausible enough. But consider the following mirror-imag... (read more)
This looks like a coding language that can take distributions, and output co-ordinates or arguments, and then perform algorithmic transforms on them. i think. Way over my haircut. Looks like an efficient way to work with sets tho.
"These source-to-source transformations perform exact inference as well as generate probabilistic programs that compute expectations, densities, and MCMC samples. The resulting inference procedures run in time comparable to that of handwritten procedures. "
Troll research from Reddit
Researchers from Stanford and Microsoft have created a scientific methodology to measure the frequency and output of intransigent commenters in social networks – those whose contributions are written as statements of fact, rather than contributions to a discourse"
pdf dentifying Dogmatism in Social Media: Signals and Models
In previous attempts at exercising, I've never lost weight; never gained in strength or dexterity; never even gotten a second wind. I've never met any significant exercise goals. But in the long-term, exercise is still worthwhile. So I'm trying something new: Changing my self-conception to Someone Who Exercises Daily. No expectations of any gains, rewards, or second winds. Just someone who slogs through the painful routine each day, every day.
I've picked a routine that can be done anywhere, with no equipment: Burpees, in descending sets (ie, for 15... (read more)
how do you think your first failure at this will come about? before retrying?
Has anyone here had success with the method of loci (memory palace)? I've seen it mentioned a few times on LW but I'm not sure where to start, or whether it's worth investing time into.
With some help, and a lot of simplifying assumptions, I've put together the spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CZ565cTZh0upkiE3aeHqOVxybI38Fwn6zSpPT2YVGGY/edit#gid=0 , mainly to help me work out some background structure for some scifi stories.
Can you think of any ways to improve the sheet?
CRISPR Screen in Toxoplasma Identifies Essential Apicomplexan Genes.
this is great, they screened and found the invasion factor in the invasive organs that allow Toxo and malaria to slither inside cells and infect.
"Secondary screens identify as an invasion factor the claudin-like apicomplexan microneme protein (CLAMP), which resembles mammalian tight-junction proteins and localizes to secretory organelles, making it critical to the initiation of infection. CLAMP is present throughout sequenced a... (read more)
SETI at X-ray Energies - Parasitic Searches from Astrophysical Observations
Was published in 1997, but uploaded to arXiv too make it more accessible.
"If a sufficiently advanced civilization can either modulate the emission from an X-ray binary, or make use of the natural high luminosity to power an artificial transmitter, these can serve as good beacons for interstellar communication without involving excessive energy costs to the broadcasting civilization. "
Havn't heard anything lately on this, so maybe never got fu... (read more)
Why was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachir_Boumaaza
Rejected to attend the http://lesswrong.com/lw/n33/european_community_weekend_2016/ because he couldn't stay the 3 days?
A quick and dirty inspiration: that value alignment is very hard is showed by very intelligent people going neoreactionary or convert to a religion from atheism. They usually base their 'move' on a coherent epistemology, with just some tiny components that zag instead of zigging.
Comment at will, I'll expand with more thoughts.
-8 Yet still no one being able to refute my arguments.