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I'm confident enough in this take to write it as a PSA: playing music at medium-size-or-larger gatherings is a Chesterton's Fence situation.
It serves the very important function of reducing average conversation size: the louder the music, the more groups naturally split into smaller groups, as people on the far end develop a (usually unconscious) common knowledge that it's too much effort to keep participating in the big one and they can start a new conversation without being unduly disruptive.
If you've ever been at a party with no music where people gravitate towards a single (or handful of) group of 8+ people, you've experienced the failure mode that this solves: usually these conversations are then actually conversations of 2-3 people with 5-6 observers, which is usually unpleasant for the observers and does not facilitate close interactions that easily lead to getting to know people.
By making it hard to have bigger conversations, the music naturally produces smaller ones; you can modulate the volume to have the desired effect on a typical discussion size. Quiet music (e.g. at many dinner parties) makes it hard to have conversations bigger than ~4-5, which is a...
23As having gone to Lighthaven, does this still feel marginally worth it at Lighthaven where we mostly tried to make it architecturally difficult to have larger conversations? I can see the case for music here, but like, I do think music makes it harder to talk to people (especially on the louder end) and that does seem like a substantial cost to me.
Talking 1-1 with music is so difficult to me that I don't enjoy a place if there's music. I expect many people on/towards the spectrum could be similar.
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Having been at two LH parties, one with music and one without, I definitely ended up in the "large conversation with 2 people talking and 5 people listening"-situation much more in the party without music.
That said, I did find it much easier to meet new people at the party without music, as this also makes it much easier to join conversations that sound interesting when you walk past (being able to actually overhear them).
This might be one of the reasons why people tend to progressively increase the volume of the music during parties. First give people a chance to meet interesting people and easily join conversations. Then increase the volume to facilitate smaller conversations.
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Yeah, when there's loud music it's much easier for me to understand people I know than people I don't because I'm already used to their speaking patterns, and can more easily infer what they said even when I don't hear it perfectly. And also because any misunderstanding or difficulty that rises out of not hearing each other well is less awkward with someone I already know than someone I don't.
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As someone who's spent meaningful amounts of time at LH during parties, absolutely yes. You successfully made it architecturally awkward to have large conversations, but that's often cashed out as "there's a giant conversation group in and totally blocking [the Entry Hallway Room of Aumann]/[the lawn between A&B]/[one or another firepit and its surrounding walkways]; that conversation group is suffering from the obvious described failure modes, but no one in it is sufficiently confident or agentic or charismatic to successfully break out into a subgroup/subconversation.
I'd recommend quiet music during parties? Or maybe even just a soundtrack of natural noises - birdsong and wind? rain and thunder? - to serve the purpose instead.
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@habryka Forgot to comment on the changes you implemented for soundscape at LH during the mixer - possibly you may want to put a speaker in the Bayes window overlooking the courtyard firepit. People started congregating/pooling there (and notably not at the other firepit next to it!) because it was the locally-quietest location, and then the usual failure modes of an attempted 12-person conversation ensued.
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Seems cheap to get the info value, especially for quieter music? Can be expensive to set up a multi-room sound system, but it's probably most valuable in the room that is largest/most prone to large group formation, so maybe worth experimenting with a speaker playing some instrumental jazz or something. I do think the architecture does a fair bit of work already.
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I’m being slightly off-topic here, but how does one "makes it architecturally difficult to have larger conversations"? More broadly, the topic of designing spaces where people can think better/do cooler stuff/etc. is fascinating, but I don’t know where to learn more than the very basics of it. Do you know good books, articles, etc. on these questions, by any chance?
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I like Christopher Alexander's stuff.
On the object level question, the way to encourage small conversations architecturally is to have lots of nooks that only fit 3-6 people.
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“Nook”, a word which here includes both “circles of seats with no other easily movable seats nearby” and “easily accessible small rooms”.
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Thanks! I knew of Alexander, but you reminded me that I’ve been procrastinating on tackling the 1,200+ pages of A Pattern Language for a few months, and I’ve now started reading it :-)
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Was one giant cluster last two times I was there. In the outside area. Not sure why the physical space arrangement wasn't working. I guess walking into a cubby feels risky/imposing, and leaving feels rude. I would have liked it to work.
I'm not sure how you could improve it. I was trying to think of something last time I was there. "Damn all these nice cubbies are empty." I could not think of anything.
Just my experience.
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I agree music has this effect, but I think the Fence is mostly because it also hugely influences the mood of the gathering, i.e. of the type and correlatedness of people's emotional states.
(Music also has some costs, although I think most of these aren't actually due to the music itself and can be avoided with proper acoustical treatment. E.g. people sometimes perceive music as too loud because the emitted volume is literally too high, but ime people often say this when the noise is actually overwhelming for other reasons, like echo (insofar as walls/floor/ceiling are near/hard/parallel), or bass traps/standing waves (such that the peak amplitude of the perceived wave is above the painfully loud limit, even though the average amplitude is fine; in the worst cases, this can result in barely being able to hear the music while simultaneously perceiving it as painfully loud!)
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Other factors also to consider:
1.
Gatherings with generous alcohol drinking tend to have louder music because alcohol relaxes the inner ear muscles, resulting in less vibration being conveyed, resulting in sound dampening. So anyone drinking alcohol experiences lower sound volumes. This means that a comfortable volume for a drunk person is quite a bit higher than for a sober person. Which is a fact that can be quite unpleasant if you are the designated driver! I always try to remember to bring earplugs if I'm going to be a designated driver for a group going out drinking.
If you are drinking less than the average amount of alcohol at a social gathering, chances are your opinion of the music will be that it is too loud.
2. The intent of the social gathering in some cases is to facilitate good conversations. In such a case the person managing the music (host or DJ) should be thoughtful of this, and aim for a 'coffee shop' vibe with quiet background music and places to go in the venue where the music dwindles away.
In the alternate case, where the intent of the party is to facilitate social connection and/or flirtation and/or fun dancing... then the host / DJ may be actively pushing the music loud to discourage any but the most minimal conversation, trying to get people to drink alcohol and dance rather than talk, and at most have brief simple 1-1 conversations. A dance club is an example of a place deliberately aiming for this end of the spectrum.
So, in designing a social gathering, these factors are definitely something to keep in mind. What are the goals of the gathering? How much, if any, alcohol will the guests be drinking? If you have put someone in charge of controlling the music, are they on the same page about this? Or are they someone who is used to controlling music in a way appropriate to dance hall style scenarios and will default to that?
In regards to intellectual discussion focused gatherings, I do actually think that there can be a pl
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Wow, I had no idea about the effects of alcohol on hearing! It makes so much sense - I never drink and I hate how loud the music is in parties!
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Also important to notice that restaurants and bars are not fully aligned with your goals. On one hand, if you feel good there, you are likely to come again, and thus generate more profit for them -- this part is win/win. On the other hand, it is better for them if you spend less time talking (even if that's what you like), and instead eat and drink more, and then leave, so that other paying customers can come -- that part is win/lose.
(Could restaurants become better aligned if instead of food we paid them for time? I suspect this would result in other kind of frustrating actions, such as them taking too much time to bring the food in very small portions.)
So while it is true that the music serves a socially useful purpose, it also serves a profit-increasing purpose, so I suspect that the usual volume of music we are used to is much higher than would be socially optimal.
I also like Lorxus's proposal of playing natural noises instead.
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The “anti-café” concept is like this. I've never been to one myself, but I've seen descriptions on the Web of a few of them existing. They don't provide anything like restaurant-style service that I've heard; instead, there are often cheap or free snacks along the lines of what a office break room might carry, along with other amenities, and you pay for the amount of time you spend there.
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I think a restaurant where you paid for time, if the food was nothing special, would quickly turn into a coworking space. Maybe it would be more open-office and more amenable to creative, conversational, interpersonal work rather than laptop work. You probably want it to be a cafe - or at least look like a cafe from the outside in signage / branding; you may want architectural sound dampening like a denny's booth. You could sell pre-packaged food and sodas - it isn't what they're here for. Or you could even sell or rent activities like coloring books, simple social tabletop games, small toys, lockpicking practice locks, tiny marshmallow candle smore sets, and so on.
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Unfortunately different people have different levels of hearing ability, so you're not setting the conversation size at the same level for all participants. If you set the volume too high, you may well be excluding some people from the space entirely.
I think that people mostly put music on in these settings as a way to avoid awkward silences and to create the impression that the room is more active than it is, whilst people are arriving. If this is true, then it serves no great purpose once people have arrived and are engaged in conversation.
Another important consideration is sound-damping. I've been in venues where there's no music playing and the conversations are happening between 3 -5 people but everyone is shouting to be heard above the crowd, and it's incredibly difficult for someone with hearing damage to participate at all. This is primarily a result of hard, echoey walls and very few soft furnishings.
I think there's something to be said for having different areas with different noise levels, allowing people to choose what they're comfortable with, and observing where they go.
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It seems to me that this claim has a lot to overcome, given that the observers could walk away at any time.
Is that a goal? I've never been much of a partygoer, but if I want to have a one-on-one conversation with somebody and get to know them, a party is about the last place I'd think about going. Too many annoying interruptions.
It may do that, but that doesn't necessarily mean that that's the function. You could equally well guess that its function was to exclude people who don't like loud music, since it also does that.
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this is an incredible insight! from this I think we can design better nightclublike social spaces for people who don't like loud sounds (such as people in this community with signal processing issues due to autism).
One idea I have is to do it in the digital. like, VR chat silent nightclub where the sound falloff is super high. (perhaps this exists?) Or a 2D top down equivalent. I will note that Gather Town is backwards - the sound radius is so large that there is still lots of lemurs, but at the same time you can't read people's body language from across the room - and instead there needs to be an emotive radius from webcam / face-tracking needs to be larger than the sound radius. Or you can have a trad UI with "rooms" of very small size that you have to join to talk. tricky to get that kind of app right though since irl there's a fluid boundary between in and out of a convo and a binary demarcation would be subtly unpleasant.
Another idea is to find alternative ways to sound isolate in meatspace. Other people have talked about architectural approaches like in Lighthaven. Or imagine a party where everyone had to wear earplugs. sound falls off with the square of distance and you can calculate out how many decibles you need to deafen everyone by to get the group sizes you want. Or a party with a rule that you have to plug your ears when you aren't actively in a conversation.
Or you could lay out some hula hoops with space between them and the rule is you can only talk within the hula hoop with other people in it, and you can't listen in on someone else's hula hoop convo. have to plug your ears as you walk around. Better get real comfortable with your friends! Maybe secretly you can move the hoops around to combine into bigger groups if you are really motivated. Or with way more effort, you could similarly do a bed fort building competition.
These are very cheap experiments!
I just ran a party where everyone was required to wear earplugs. I think this did effectively cap the max size of groups at 5 people, past which people tend to split into mini conversations. People say the initial silence feels a bit odd though. I'm definitely going to try this more
1I think some of the AI safety policy community has over-indexed on the visual model of the "Overton Window" and under-indexed on alternatives like the "ratchet effect," "poisoning the well," "clown attacks," and other models where proposing radical changes can make you, your allies, and your ideas look unreasonable (edit to add: whereas successfully proposing minor changes achieves hard-to-reverse progress, making ideal policy look more reasonable).
I'm not familiar with a lot of systematic empirical evidence on either side, but it seems to me like the more effective actors in the DC establishment overall are much more in the habit of looking for small wins that are both good in themselves and shrink the size of the ask for their ideal policy than of pushing for their ideal vision and then making concessions. Possibly an ideal ecosystem has both strategies, but it seems possible that at least some versions of "Overton Window-moving" strategies executed in practice have larger negative effects via associating their "side" with unreasonable-sounding ideas in the minds of very bandwidth-constrained policymakers, who strongly lean on signals of credibility and consensus when quickly eva...
These are plausible concerns, but I don't think they match what I see as a longtime DC person.
We know that the legislative branch is less productive in the US than it has been in any modern period, and fewer bills get passed (many different metrics for this, but one is https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CONGRESS/PRODUCTIVITY/egpbabmkwvq/) . Those bills that do get passed tend to be bigger swings as a result -- either a) transformative legislation (e.g., Obamacare, Trump tax cuts and COVID super-relief, Biden Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS) or b) big omnibus "must-pass" bills like FAA reauthorization, into which many small proposals get added in.
I also disagree with the claim that policymakers focus on credibility and consensus generally, except perhaps in the executive branch to some degree. (You want many executive actions to be noncontroversial "faithfully executing the laws" stuff, but I don't see that as "policymaking" in the sense you describe it.)
In either of those, it seems like the current legislative "meta" favors bigger policy asks, not small wins, and I'm having trouble of thinking of anyone I know who's impactful in DC who has adopted the opposite strategy. What are examples of the small wins that you're thinking of as being the current meta?
Agree with lots of this– a few misc thoughts [hastily written]:
- I think the Overton Window frame ends up getting people to focus too much on the dimension "how radical is my ask"– in practice, things are usually much more complicated than this. In my opinion, a preferable frame is something like "who is my target audience and what might they find helpful." If you're talking to someone who makes it clear that they will not support X, it's silly to keep on talking about X. But I think the "target audience first" approach ends up helping people reason in a more sophisticated way about what kinds of ideas are worth bringing up. As an example, in my experience so far, many policymakers are curious to learn more about intelligence explosion scenarios and misalignment scenarios (the more "radical" and "speculative" threat models).
- I don't think it's clear that the more effective actors in DC tend to be those who look for small wins. Outside of the AIS community, there sure do seem to be a lot of successful organizations that take hard-line positions and (presumably) get a lot of their power/influence from the ideological purity that they possess & communicate. Whether or not these
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Quick reactions:
1. Re: how over-emphasis on "how radical is my ask" vs "what my target audience might find helpful" and generally the importance of making your case well regardless of how radical it is, that makes sense. Though notably the more radical your proposal is (or more unfamiliar your threat models are), the higher the bar for explaining it well, so these do seem related.
2. Re: more effective actors looking for small wins, I agree that it's not clear, but yeah, seems like we are likely to get into some reference class tennis here. "A lot of successful organizations that take hard-line positions and (presumably) get a lot of their power/influence from the ideological purity that they possess & communicate"? Maybe, but I think of like, the agriculture lobby, who just sort of quietly make friends with everybody and keep getting 11-figure subsidies every year, in a way that (I think) resulted more from gradual ratcheting than making a huge ask. "Pretty much no group– whether radical or centrist– has had tangible wins" seems wrong in light of the EU AI Act (where I think both a "radical" FLI and a bunch of non-radical orgs were probably important) and the US executive order (I'm not sure which strategy is best credited there, but I think most people would have counted the policies contained within it as "minor asks" relative to licensing, pausing, etc). But yeah I agree that there are groups along the whole spectrum that probably deserve credit.
3. Re: poisoning the well, again, radical-ness and being dumb/uninformed are of course separable but the bar rises the more radical you get, in part because more radical policy asks strongly correlate with more complicated procedural asks; tweaking ECRA is both non-radical and procedurally simple, creating a new agency to license training runs is both outside the DC Overton Window and very procedurally complicated.
4. Re: incentives, I agree that this is a good thing to track, but like, "people who oppose X are in
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It's not just that problem though, they will likely be biased to think that their policy is helpful for safety of AI at all, and this is a point that sometimes gets forgotten.
But correct on the fact that Akash's argument is fully general.
4[anonymous]
Recently, John Wentworth wrote:
And I think this makes sense (e.g. Simler's Social Status: Down the Rabbit Hole which you've probably read), if you define "AI Safety" as "people who think that superintelligence is serious business or will be some day".
The psych dynamic that I find helpful to point out here is Yud's Is That Your True Rejection post from ~16 years ago. A person who hears about superintelligence for the first time will often respond to their double-take at the concept by spamming random justifications for why that's not a problem (which, notably, feels like legitimate reasoning to that person, even though it's not). An AI-safety-minded person becomes wary of being effectively attacked by high-status people immediately turning into what is basically a weaponized justification machine, and develops a deep drive wanting that not to happen. Then justifications ensue for wanting that to happen less frequently in the world, because deep down humans really don't want their social status to be put at risk (via denunciation) on a regular basis like that. These sorts of deep drives are pretty opaque to us humans but their real world consequences are very strong.
Something that seems more helpful than playing whack-a-mole whenever this issue comes up is having more people in AI policy putting more time into improving perspective. I don't see shorter paths to increasing the number of people-prepared-to-handle-unexpected-complexity than giving people a broader and more general thinking capacity for thoughtfully reacting to the sorts of complex curveballs that you get in the real world. Rationalist fiction like HPMOR is great for this, as well as others e.g. Three Worlds Collide, Unsong, Worth the Candle, Worm (list of top rated ones here). With the caveat, of course, that doing well in the real world is less like the bite-sized easy-to-understand events in ratfic, and more like spotting errors in the methodology section of a study or making money playing poker.
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I'm not a decel, but the way this stuff often is resolved is that there are crazy people that aren't taken seriously by the managerial class but that are very loud and make obnoxious asks. Think the evangelicals against abortion or the Columbia protestors.
Then there is some elite, part of the managerial class, that makes reasonable policy claims. For Abortion, this is Mitch McConnel, being disciplined over a long period of time in choosing the correct judges. For Palestine, this is Blinken and his State Department bureaucracy.
The problem with decels is that theoretically they are part of the managerial class themselves. Or at least, they act like they are. They call themselves rationalists, read Eliezer and Scott Alexander, and what not. But the problem is that it's very hard for an uninterested third party to take seriously these Overton Window bogous claims from people that were supposed to be measured, part of the managerial class.
You need to split. There are the crazy ones that people don't take seriously, but will move the managerial class. And there are the serious people that EA Money will send to D.C. to work at Blumenthal's office. This person needs to make small policy requests that will sabotage IA, without looking so. And slowly, you get policy wins and you can sabotage the whole effort.
Found this passage from Schelling's Strategy of Conflict to be useful in understanding how norms react, and how they should react, to behavior that is not necessarily harmful but is often associated with harm, cf. "decoupling." Emphasis mine:
...It is essential, therefore, for maximum credibility, to leave as little room as possible for judgment or discretion in carrying out the threat. If one is committed to punish a certain type of behavior when it reaches certain limits, but the limits are not carefully and objectively defined, the party threatened will realize that when the time comes to decide whether the threat must be enforced or not, his interest and that of the threatening party will coincide in an attempt to avoid the mutually unpleasant consequences.
In order to make a threat precise, so that its terms are visible both to the threatened party and to any third parties whose reaction to the whole affair is of value to the adversaries, it may be necessary to introduce some arbitrary elements. The threat must involve overt acts rather than intentions; it must be attached to the visible deeds, not invisible ones; it may have to attach itself to certain ancillary actions that are o
Biggest disagreement between the average worldview of people I met with at EAG and my own is something like "cluster thinking vs sequence thinking," where people at EAG were often like "but even if we get this specific policy/technical win, doesn't it not matter unless you also have this other, harder thing?" and I was often more like, "Well, very possibly we won't get that other, harder thing, but still seems really useful to get that specific policy/technical win, here's a story where we totally fail on that first thing and the second thing turns out to matter a ton!"
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As someone who used to be fully sequence thinking-oriented and gradually came round to the cluster thinking view, I think it's useful to quote from that post of Holden's on when it's best to use which type of thinking:
Also this:
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I'm confused as to why this is inconsistent with sequence thinking. This sounds like identifying a mechanistic story for why the policy/technical win would have good consequences, and accounting for that mechanism in your model of the overall value of working on the policy/technical win. Which a sequence thinker can do just fine.
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Sequence thinking can totally generate that, but it seems like it is also prone to this kind of stylized simple model where you wind up with too few arrows in your causal graph and then inaccurately conclude that some parts are necessary and others aren't helpful.
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I worry there's kind of a definitional drift going on here. I guess Holden doesn't give a super clean definition in the post, but AFAICT these quotes get at the heart of the distinction:
"Making a decision based on a single model of the world" vs. "combining different perspectives by weighing their conclusions against each other" seems orthogonal to the failure mode you mention. (Which is a failure to account for a mechanism that the "cluster thinker" here explicitly foresees.) I'm not sure if you're claiming that empirically, people who follow sequence thinking have a track record of this failure mode? If so, I guess I'm just suspicious of that claim and would expect it's grounded mostly in vibes.
Prime Day (now not just an amazon thing?) ends tomorrow, so I scanned Wirecutter's Prime Day page for plausibly-actually-life-improving purchases so you didn't have to (plus a couple others I found along the way; excludes tons of areas that I'm not familiar with, like women's clothing or parenting):
Seem especially good to me:
- Their "budget pick" for best office chair $60 off
- Whoop sleep tracker $40 off
- Their top pick for portable computer monitor $33 off (I personally endorse this in particular)
- Their top pick for CO2 (and humidity) monitor $31 off
- Crest whitening strips $14 off (I personally endorse this in particular)
- 3-pack of their top pick for umbrellas, $12 off
- Their top pick for sleep mask $12 off
- Their top pick for electric toothbrush $10 off
- 6-pair pack of good and super-affordable socks $4 off (I personally endorse this in particular; see my previous enthusiasm for bulk sock-buying in general and these in particular here)
Could also be good:
...
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Y'know, I got one of those same u-shaped Midea air conditioners, two or three years ago. Just a few weeks ago I got a notice that it was recalled. Poor water drainage, which tended to cause mold (and indeed I encountered that problem). Though the linked one says "updated model", which makes me suspect that it's deeply discounted because the market is flooded with recalled air conditioners which were modified to fix the problem.
... which sure does raise some questions about exactly what methodology led wirecutter to make it a top pick.
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Interesting point! Do you have any ideas for how I could read more about potential problems in air conditioner ratings (by Wirecutter and others)? Like, way more? :)
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I am genuinely uncertain whether this is a joke.
We do happen to have had had the great Air Conditioner War of 2022: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMAK6eeMCH3JGuqeZ/everything-i-need-to-know-about-takeoff-speeds-i-learned
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Alas, was hoping the smiley at the end would give it away...
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It did cause my probability to go from 20% to 80%, so it definitely helped!
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I purchased these socks and approve
[reposting from Twitter, lightly edited/reformatted] Sometimes I think the whole policy framework for reducing catastrophic risks from AI boils down to two core requirements -- transparency and security -- for models capable of dramatically accelerating R&D.
If you have a model that could lead to general capabilities much stronger than human-level within, say, 12 months, by significantly improving subsequent training runs, the public and scientific community have a right to know this exists and to see at least a redacted safety case; and external researchers need to have some degree of red-teaming access. Probably various other forms of transparency would be useful too. It feels like this is a category of ask that should unite the "safety," "ethics," and "accelerationist" communities?
And the flip side is that it's very important that a model capable of kicking off that kind of dash to superhuman capabilities not get stolen/exfiltrated, such that you don't wind up with multiple actors facing enormous competitive tradeoffs to rush through this process.
These have some tradeoffs, especially as you approach AGI -- e.g. if you develop a system that can do 99% of foundation model train...
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Is it? My sense is the race dynamics get worse if you are worried that your competitor has access to a potentially pivotal model but you can't verify that because you can't steal it. My guess is the best equilibrium is major nations being able to access competing models.
Also, at least given present compute requirements, a smaller actor stealing a model is not that dangerous, since you need to invest hundreds of millions into compute to use the model for dangerous actions, which is hard to do secretly (though to what degree dangerous inference will cost a lot is something I am quite confused about).
In general I am not super confident here, but I at least really don't know what the sign of hardening models against exfiltration with regards to race dynamics is.
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What about limited API access to all actors for verification (aka transparency) while still having security?
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It's really hard to know that your other party is giving you API access to their most powerful model. If you could somehow verify that the API you are accessing is indeed directly hooked up to their most powerful model, and that the capabilities of that model aren't being intentionally hobbled to deceive you, then I do think this gets you a lot of the same benefit.
Some of the benefit is still missing though. I think lack of moats is a strong disincentive to develop technology, and so in a race scenario you might be a lot less tempted to make a mad sprint towards AGI if you think your opponents can catch up almost immediately, and so you might end up with substantial timeline-accelerating effects by enabling better moats.
I do think the lack-of-moat benefit is smaller than the verification benefit.
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I think it should be possible to get a good enough verification regime in practice with considerable effort. It's possible that sufficiently good verification occurs by default due to spies.
I agree it there will potentially be a lot of issues downstream of verification issues by default.
Hmm, this isn't really how I model the situation with respect to racing. From my perspective, the question isn't "security or no security", but is instead "when will you have extreme security".
(My response might overlap with tlevin's, I'm not super sure.)
Here's an example way things could go:
* An AI lab develops a model that begins to accelerate AI R&D substantially (say 10x) while having weak security. This model was developed primarily for commercial reasons and the possibility of it being stolen isn't a substantial disincentive in practice.
* This model is immediately stolen by China.
* Shortly after this, USG secures the AI lab.
* Now, further AIs will be secure, but to stay ahead of China which has substantially accelerated AI R&D and other AI work, USG races to AIs which are much smarter than humans.
In this scenario, if you had extreme security ready to go earlier, then the US would potentially have a larger lead and better negotiating position. I think this probably gets you longer delays prior to qualitatively wildly superhuman AIs in practice.
There is a case that if you don't work on extreme security in advance, then there will naturally be a pause to implement this. I'm a bit skeptical of this in practice, especially in short timelines. I also think that the timing of this pause might not be ideal - you'd like to pause when you already have transformative AI rather than before.
Separately, if you imagine that USG is rational and at least somewhat aligned, then I think security looks quite good, though I can understand why you wouldn't buy this.
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Interesting, I guess my model is that the default outcome (in the absence of heroic efforts to the contrary) is indeed "no security for nation state attackers", which as far as I can tell is currently the default for practically everything that is developed using modern computing systems. Getting to a point where you can protect something like the weights of an AI model from nation state actors would be extraordinarily difficult and an unprecedented achievement in computer security, which is why I don't expect it to happen (even as many actors would really want it to happen).
My model of cybersecurity is extremely offense-dominated for anything that requires internet access or requires thousands of people to have access (both of which I think are quite likely for deployed weights).
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The "how do we know if this is the most powerful model" issue is one reason I'm excited by OpenMined, who I think are working on this among other features of external access tools
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Interesting. I would have to think harder about whether this is a tractable problem. My gut says it's pretty hard to build confidence here without leaking information, but I might be wrong.
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If probability of misalignment is low, probability of human+AI coups (including e.g. countries invading each other) is high, and/or there aren't huge offense-dominant advantages to being somewhat ahead, you probably want more AGI projects, not fewer. And if you need a ton of compute to go from an AI that can do 99% of AI R&D tasks to an AI that can cause global catastrophe, then model theft is less of a factor. But the thing I'm worried about re: model theft is a scenario like this, which doesn't seem that crazy:
* Company/country X has an AI agent that can do 99% [edit: let's say "automate 90%"] of AI R&D tasks, call it Agent-GPT-7, and enough of a compute stock to have that train a significantly better Agent-GPT-8 in 4 months at full speed ahead, which can then train a basically superintelligent Agent-GPT-9 in another 4 months at full speed ahead. (Company/country X doesn't know the exact numbers, but their 80% CI is something like 2-8 months for each step; company/country Y has less info, so their 80% CI is more like 1-16 months for each step.)
* The weights for Agent-GPT-7 are available (legally or illegally) to company/country Y, which is known to company/country X.
* Y has, say, a fifth of the compute. So each of those steps will take 20 months. Symmetrically, company/country Y thinks it'll take 10-40 months and company/country X thinks it's 5-80.
* Once superintelligence is in sight like this, both company/country X and Y become very scared of the other getting it first -- in the country case, they are worried it will undermine nuclear deterrence, upend their political system, basically lead to getting taken over by the other. The relevant decisionmakers think this outcome is better than extinction, but maybe not by that much, whereas getting superintelligence before the other side is way better. In the company case, it's a lot less intense, but they still would much rather get superintelligence than their arch-rival CEO.
* So, X thinks they have anywhe
3
I expect that having a nearly-AGI-level AI, something capable of mostly automating further ML research, means the ability to rapidly find algorithmic improvements that result in:
1. drastic reductions in training cost for an equivalently strong AI.
- Making it seem highly likely that a new AI trained using this new architecture/method and a similar amount of compute as the current AI would be substantially more powerful. (thus giving an estimate of time-to-AGI)
- Making it possible to train a much smaller cheaper model than the current AI with the same capabilities.
2. speed-ups and compute-efficiency for inference on current AI, and for the future cheaper versions
3. ability to create and deploy more capable narrow tool-AIs which seem likely to substantially shift military power when deployed to existing military hardware (e.g. better drone piloting models)
4. ability to create and deploy more capable narrow tool-AIs which seem likely to substantially increase economic productivity of the receiving factories.
5. ability to rapidly innovate in non-ML technology, and thereby achieve military and economic benefits.
6. ability to create and destroy self-replicating weapons which would kill most of humanity (e.g. bioweapons), and also to create targeted ones which would wipe out just the population of a specific country.
If I were the government of a country in whom such a tech were being developed, I would really not other countries able to steal this tech. It would not seem like a worthwhile trade-off that the thieves would then have a more accurate estimate of how far from AGI my countries' company was.
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Just pressing enter twice seems to work well-enough for me, though I feel like I vaguely remember some bugged state where that didn't work.
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Yeah doing it again it works fine, but it was just creating a long list of empty bullet points (I also have this issue in GDocs sometimes)
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Yeah, weird. I will see whether I can reproduce it somehow. It is quite annoying when it happens.
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Spicy take: it might be more realistic to substract 1 or even 2 from the numbers for the GPT generations, and also to consider that the intelligence explosion might be quite widely-distributed: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wr2SxQuRvcXeDBbNZ/bogdan-ionut-cirstea-s-shortform?commentId=6EFv8PAvELkFopLHy
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I strongly disagree, habryka, on the basis that I believe LLMs are already providing some uplift for highly harmful offense-dominant technology (e.g. bioweapons). I think this effect worsens the closer you get to full AGI. The inference cost to do this, even with a large model, is trivial. You just need to extract the recipe.
This gives a weak state-actor (or wealthy non-state-actor) that has high willingness to undertake provocative actions the ability to gain great power from even temporary access to a small amount of inference from a powerful model. Once they have the weapon recipe, they no longer need the model.
I'm also not sure about tlevin's argument about 'right to know'. I think the State has a responsibility to protect its citizens. So I certainly agree the State should be monitoring closely all the AI companies within its purview. On the other hand, making details of the progress of the AI publicly known may lead to increased international tensions or risk of theft or terrorism. I suspect it's better that the State have inspectors and security personnel permanently posted in the AI labs, but that the exact status of the AI progress be classified.
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I think the costs of biorisks are vastly smaller than AGI-extinction risk, and so they don't really factor into my calculations here. Having intermediate harms before AGI seems somewhat good, since it seems more likely to cause rallying around stopping AGI development, though I feel pretty confused about the secondary effects here (but am pretty confident the primary effects are relatively unimportant).
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I think that doesn't really make sense, since the lowest hanging fruit for disempowering humanity routes through self-replicating weapons. Bio weapons are the currently available technology which is in the category of self-replicating weapons. I think that would be the most likely attack vector for a rogue AGI seeking rapid coercive disempowerment.
Plus, having bad actors (human or AGI) have access to a tech for which we currently have no practical defense, which could wipe out nearly all of humanity for under $100k... seems bad? Just a really unstable situation to be in?
I do agree that it seems unlikely that some terrorist org is going to launch a civilization-ending bioweapon attack within the remaining 36 months or so until AGI (or maybe even ASI). But I do think that manipulating a terrorist org into doing this, and giving them the recipe and supplies to do so, would be a potentially tempting tactic for a hostile AGI.
I think if AI kills us all it would be because the AI wants to kill us all. It is (in my model of the world) very unlikely to happen because someone misuses AI systems.
I agree that bioweapons might be part of that, but the difficult part of actually killing everyone via bioweapons requires extensive planning and deployment strategies, which humans won't want to execute (since they don't want to die), and so if bioweapons are involved in all of us dying it will very likely be the result of an AI seeing using them as an opportunity to take over, which I think is unlikely to happen because someone runs some leaked weights on some small amount of compute (or like, that would happen years after the same AIs would have done the same when run on the world's largest computing clusters).
In general, for any story of "dumb AI kills everyone" you need a story for why a smart AI hasn't killed us first.
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I agree that it seems more likely to be a danger from AI systems misusing humans than humans misusing the AI systems.
What I don't agree with is jumping forward in time to thinking about when there is an AI so powerful it can kill us all at its whim. In my framework, that isn't a useful time to be thinking about, it's too late for us to be changing the outcome at that point.
The key time to be focusing on is the time before the AI is sufficiently powerful to wipe out all of humanity, and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
My expectation is that this period of time could be months or even several years, where there is an AI powerful enough and agentic enough to make a dangerous-but-stoppable attempt to take over the world. That's a critical moment for potential success, since potentially the AI will be contained in such a way that the threat will be objectively demonstrable to key decision makers. That would make for a window of opportunity to make sweeping governance changes, and further delay take-over. Such a delay could be super valuable if it gives alignment research more critical time for researching the dangerously powerful AI.
Also, the period of time between now and when the AI is that powerful is one where AI-as-a-tool makes it easier and easier for humans aided by AI to deploy civilization-destroying self-replicating weapons. Current AIs are already providing non-zero uplift (both lowering barriers to access, and raising peak potential harms). This is likely to continue to rapidly get worse over the next couple years. Delaying AGI doesn't much help with biorisk from tool AI, so if you have a 'delay AGI' plan then you need to also consider the rapidly increasing risk from offense-dominant tech.
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Also - I'm not sure I'm getting the thing where verifying that your competitor has a potentially pivotal model reduces racing?
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Same reason as knowing how many nukes your opponents has reduces racing. If you are conservative the uncertainty in how far ahead your opponent is causes escalating races, even if you would both rather not escalate (as long as your mean is well-calibrated).
E.g. let's assume you and your opponent are de-facto equally matched in the capabilities of your system, but both have substantial uncertainty, e.g. assign 30% probability to your opponent being substantially ahead of you. Then if you think those 30% of worlds are really bad, you probably will invest a bunch more into developing your systems (which of course your opponent will observe, increase their own investment, and then you repeat).
However, if you can both verify how many nukes you have, you can reach a more stable equilibrium even under more conservative assumptions.
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Gotcha. A few disanalogies though -- the first two specifically relate to the model theft/shared access point, the latter is true even if you had verifiable API access:
1. Me verifying how many nukes you have doesn't mean I suddenly have that many nukes, unlike AI model capabilities, though due to compute differences it does not mean we suddenly have the same time distance to superintelligence.
2. Me having more nukes only weakly enables me to develop more nukes faster, unlike AI that can automate a lot of AI R&D.
3. This model seems to assume you have an imprecise but accurate estimate of how many nukes I have, but companies will probably be underestimating the proximity of each other to superintelligence, for the same reason that they're underestimating their own proximity to superintelligence, until it's way more salient/obvious.
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It's not super clear whether from a racing perspective having an equal number of nukes is bad. I think it's genuinely messy (and depends quite sensitively on how much actors are scared of losing vs. happy about winning vs. scared of racing).
I do also currently think that the compute-component will likely be a bigger deal than the algorithmic/weights dimension, making the situation more analogous to nukes, but I do think there is a lot of uncertainty on this dimension.
Yeah, totally agree that this is an argument against proliferation, and an important one. While you might not end up with additional racing dynamics, the fact that more global resources can now use the cutting edge AI system to do AI R&D is very scary.
In-general I think it's very hard to predict whether people will overestimate or underestimate things. I agree that literally right now countries are probably underestimating it, but an overreaction in the future also wouldn't surprise me very much (in the same way that COVID started with an underreaction, and then was followed by a massive overreaction).
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Importantly though, once you have several thousand nukes the strategic returns to more nukes drop pretty close to zero, regardless of how many your opponents have, while if you get the scary model's weights and then don't use them to push capabilities even more, your opponent maybe gets a huge strategic advantage over you. I think this is probably true, but the important thing is whether the actors think it might be true.
Yeah, good point.
Hot take: the Streisand Effect might be entirely driven by survivorship bias. Probably happens all the time that people delete stuff and then the public never hears about it, but the rare exceptions are sufficiently ironic that they get a whole effect named after them!
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I like how you think, but I don’t think it’s entirely driven by survivorship bias—experimental evidence shows that people are more motivated to access information when it’s suppressed than when it’s accessible (a phenomenon called psychological reactance).
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Interesting. Yeah rather than "entirely driven" I guess I should say: it seems like the direct effects of suppressing information probably usually outweigh the second-order Streisand Effect, and the exceptions are more salient than the non-exceptions due to survivorship bias?
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I think you're headed in the right direction, yes: people can only experience psychological reactance when they are aware that information is being suppressed, and most information suppression is successful (in that the information is suppressed and the suppression attempt is covert). In the instances where the suppression attempt is overt, a number of factors determine whether the "Streisand Effect" occurs (the novelty/importance of the information, the number of people who notice the suppression attempt, the traits/values/interests/influence of the people that notice the suppression attempt, whether it's a slow news day, etc.). I think survivorship bias is relevant to the extent that it leads people to overestimate how often the Streisand Effect occurs in response to attempts to suppress information. Does that sound about right to you?
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I suspect this about many things, e.g. the advice in the US to never talk to the police.
With the Streisand effect I'm less sure. Conflict sells. The areas in e.g. popular science I know the most about tend not to be the ones that are most established or important -- they tend to be the ones that are controversial (group selection, deworming wars, arsenic biology).
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Maybe we should distinguish between the "Weak Streisand Effect" (in some cases, the act of attempting to suppress information adds to the virality of a story) and the "Strong Streisand Effect" (attempting to suppress information increases the virality of a story in expectation). WSE seems definitely true, SSE seems pretty unlikely on average, though depends massively on the details.
Potential high-ROI purchase: lots of the same decent, cheap socks. I've saved several minutes per week of pairing socks by getting two packs of these. 12 pairs will set you back $30-$34, depending on size (plus shipping if applicable); they're listed in Wirecutter's "best no-show socks" (even though they do show while wearing most sneakers; aren't all socks "no-show" socks if you posit a tall enough shoe?).
(Of course, this is less useful if you're fine with wearing mismatched socks anyway. But I think the asymmetry looks slightly bad and it sends...
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I second the socks-as-sets move.
The other advantage is getting on-avetage more functional socks at the cost of visual variety.
IMO an important criteria for a sock is its odor resistance. This seems to vary wildly between socks of similar price and quality. Some have antimicrobial treatments that last a very long time, others do not. And it's often not advertised. Reviews rarely include this information.
I don't have a better solution than buying one pair or set before expanding to a whole set. This also lets you choose socks.that feel good to wear.
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I've been doing this for about 10 years. This January I needed to get some new socks but my brand was discontinued so I decided to buy a few different brands and compare them. I will take this opportunity to write a public sock review.
1. CS CELERSPORT Ankle Athletic Running Socks Low Cut Sports Tab Socks (the black version of the brand you linked): I did not like the wrinkle in the back, and the texture was a bit weird. 4/5.
2. Hanes Men's Max Cushioned Ankle Socks: Cozy and nice texture, but they made my feet too hot. I might buy these if I lived somewhere colder. 4/5.
3. Hanes Men's Socks, X-Temp Cushioned No Show Socks: Nice texture, and not too hot. A little tight on the toes which makes it harder for me to wiggle them. These are the ones I decided to go with. 4.5/5.