Witty, but my head would almost crash into my hands when I heard this if I didn't think the speaker was really really smart so that I could trust that the exercise would be instructive in a particular, useful way. If I don't trust the speaker that much, they need to start giving me specific concrete things related to self-development or I'll not be very confident in their ability to help me.

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[-]Morendil14y30

It's too late by now to help the OP, but a few points need mentioning:

If you self-describe as "running" the group, you have taken on some responsibility for preparing ahead of time; no advice any of us gives the OP is going to change that, or change that they are to some extent delinquent.
Just how much responsibility depends primarily on the expectations you have set up among participants; are they in fact expecting you to have a rehearsed, structured activity to offer them at the meeting ?
If expectations are low, pulling this kind of trick isn't so bad; it can help place the group in a reflective frame of mind, and at the very least pave the way for discussions of how "meta" it's rational to go.
Irrespective of expectations, the above can be much more than a "trick" - the book Software for Your Head that I mentioned elsewhere arose from several iterations of essentially the above exercise. However, careful preparation, well ahead of time, would still be valuable if you picked that option.

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[-]paulfchristiano14y50

I recommend paranoid debating / the Aumann game / calibration exercises with trivia (answer trivia questions with confidence intervals).

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[-]Benquo14y00

Wits and Wagers has lots of good quantitative questions for calibration exercises.

The same equipment lets you play the updating game (divide into small groups, come up with point estimates individually, then update on others' numbers and see whether on average it moved you closer),

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