I think this is broadly correct. My sense is that funders in the space are starting to think about what to do in light of Anthropic dollars, but not a lot of concrete things have started happening yet.
Beyond other e2g folks starting to donate more now, I think other things that start to make sense include:
Revisiting ideas from the FTX Future Fund era: prizes, for-profit norms, ambitious scaleable uses of funds, moonshots
Summary: Anthropic has many employees with an EA-ish outlook, who may soon have a lot of money. If you also have that kind of outlook, money donated sooner will likely be much higher impact.
It's December, and I'm trying to figure out how much to donate. This is usually a straightforward question: give 50%. But this year I'm considering dipping into savings.
There are many EAs and EA-informed employees at Anthropic, which has been very successful and is reportedly considering an IPO. The Manifold market estimates a median IPO date of June 2027:
At a floated $300B valuation and many EAs among their early employees, the amount of additional funding could be in the billions. Efforts I'd most want to support may become less constrained by money than capacity: as I've experienced in running the NAO, scaling programs takes time. This means donations now seem more valuable; ones that help organizations get into a position to productively apply further funding especially so.
In retrospect I wish I'd been able to support 80,000 Hours more substantially
before Open Philanthropy Coefficient
Giving began funding them; this time, with more ability to see
what's likely coming, I'd like to avoid that mistake.
Now, Anthropic could fail, the IPO could take a long time with minimal opportunity for employees to take money off the table before then, or the employees could end up primarily interested in funding different things than I want to see funded. Still, it seems to me that EA-influenced funding likely goes a lot farther in the next few months than it will in a few years, and I think I should probably donate more this year.