I am the second most spoiler-averse person I know.

I once was considering going to an immersive experience, and someone told me the company that ran the experience, and this was enough for me to derive an important twist that'd happen to me in the first few minutes, and I was like "augh that was a spoiler!!!" and they were like "!??".

I then went to the experience, and indeed, it was a lot worse than it would have been if I had gotten to be delighted by the opening twist.

This is all to say, I think Toy Story 5 would be the kind of movie that, if it were good, it would be worth watching unspoiled. I am worried it will not be, but, I dunno.

But, also, I've been spoiled already, and meanwhile it's pretty interesting to think about in advance.

So, decide whether you're the sorta person who should stop reading after this opening section.

(Also, if you have not seen Toy Story 3, Toy Story 3 is particularly worth watching unspoiled)

Toy Story has always been a saga about the fear of abandonment, and obsolescence, and identity crisis. I have been impressed with how much they keep escalating both the stakes and depth there while keeping the same theme.

I.

In Toy Story 1, the toy Woody must confront that he is no longer his kid (Andy)'s favorite toy. His kid forms a new relationship with a new toy. Woody worries they are replacing him.

Meanwhile, Buzz Lightyear realizes he is not the person he thought he was. Space Rangers aren't real. His entire identity is destroyed. But, he learns to form a new identify, as a kid's toy.

Eventually they both make peace with their respective losses. And then, hurray, it turns out Andy has't really outgrown Woody after all. But, their relationship with him is forever changed.

II.

In Toy Story 2, Woody confronts the fact that, even though he got to keep a relationship with Andy... that relationship has an expiration date. Andy is is clearly growing, changing, and it's clear that eventually he fundamentally won't need Woody (or any of Woody's entire social world). But, Woody make the decision to stay by Andy for the part of his lives where Woody can help him.

("You're right. I can't stop Andy from growing up. But I wouldn't miss it for the world.")

III.

Andy has grown up. The time has come. Woody's entire old life is over.

In the climactic scene where they are on the incinerator conveyor belt, my sister and I kept looking at each other, our eyes conveying our thoughts:

"Surely... surely they will find a way out of this? Oh, maybe – no, they just ruled out that way of escaping. Maybe this other – no, they ruled that out too. Oh, now.... now they are just holding hands. They... wow it seems like this scene has really resolved. Man, I can't believe they're going to end the movie right here but this would, in fact, be a complete movie if they did."

My sister and I held hands along with Woody and friends onscreen. We all made peace with this possible ending together.

Then they are rescued, in a way that was actually foreshadowed in an excellent way that was a culmination of a subplot running since Toy Story 1 and was surprisingly satisfying. But, the grief and acceptance were real.

They go on to be "reincarnated" of sorts, repeating the cycle anew with a new kid, Bonnie.

...

IV.

"Surely they can't top Toy Story 3", I thought. "The cycle is over. Toy Story 4 is a lame cash grab."

Wrong. Toy Story 4 goes further.

In Toy Story 4, Woody realizes that he has fundamentally changed.

It's not really the right thing for him, to repeat the same life as he did before. Instead of either his life ending, or his life starting over but with the same basic shape, he must confront that his entire meaningmaking schema is obsolete.

Ego death.

What happens when you've confronted physical and psychological annihilation?

You find a way to keep living.

V.

Okay.

Surely, that's the end? Surely, the fifth Toy Story is a lame cash grab like the other more recent Pixar movies?

Well, I don't know.

I have seen the trailer for Toy Story 5, which reveals enough of the key dynamics I can see where this is going.

(Last chance to get off the spoiler train and studiously avoid spoilers for another 3 months)

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...

...

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In Toy Story 5...

(drumroll)

...the bad guy is AI.

The toys that stayed with Bonnie see her receive a new iPad-like thing called LilyPad. Unlike the toys, LilyPad can talk directly to the kids, can shape their entire life, and can interact more with the broader world than the toys usually have latitude to do.

Christ.

Toy Story 5 asks the question "Okay, but, like, what if your entire culture/species is going obsolete? What then?"

I'm pretty confident this'll be the topic. It's clearly what the trailer is pointing at, it fits the established arc. The new trailer features Woody saying sadly "I... I don't know. Toys are for play. Tech is for everything." The teaser trailer said "The Age of Toys... is Over?"

But, I don't see a way for Pixar to play it that would be good art, and, that would land as a Toy Story movie. (Or, there are some very ballsy ways they could end this movie but I can't believe they'd actually do it. Meanwhile there's a bunch of lame ways it seems more likely to go).

Previous Toy Story trailers have undersold how good the movie was. I'm afraid this'll turn out to be a lame "Message movie." But, Pixar's tract record is good. I wait with bated breath.

I'm not sure they'll pull this one off, because every previous Toy Story movie was presenting a type of conflict we sort of fundamentally "know how to deal with." We've seen this story before in other guises. People lose friends. Parents lose children. People die. People lose their entire sense of purpose. We somehow move on.

Toy Story 5 is tackling a situation that humanity is still in the middle of dealing with. Most possible endings have to take some kind of opinionated stand. And most of the stands I can imagine either feel fake or patronizing or both.

...

What makes a Toy Movie?

Let us review the requirements:

1. Toy Story movies fundamentally have to work for kids and adults, with the kids getting a fun adventure and the adults getting a harrowing story about abandonment, obsolescence and identity.

2. Toy Story movies are about toys, and play, and a particular ideal of childhood and the Child/Toy relationship.

3. Toy Story movies are, like, "wholesome." They are nourishing. They are not cynical.

4. Toy Story movies for whatever reason somehow always end with a crazy heist/escape in the climax.

(So far. You could do a Toy Story movie that subverts these, but, so far they have threaded the needle on grappling with all of these in a way that felt organic and True to a consistent spirit).

And then, there's the usual set of requirements for good movies. Characters grow in interesting ways that make sense and reflect their struggles. Ideally, something about the ending is surprising and feels meaningful in someway. etc.

So, what are the options here?

...

Ending A: Put it away

Bonnie decides to put away the iPad and goes back to her toys? (similar to Toy Story 1, where Woody confronts being replaced but ultimately gets to keep most of his old relationships)

But, like, do you really buy this? I certainly can buy an individual child doing this. But, Toy Story's metaphor is the toys are a kind of stand in for any of us. And the tide of Tech for Kids is clearly still coming even if one family made a different choice.

...

Ending B: Parents take it away

All the problems with A and also kinda Lame. (Takes the agency out of the kid/toy relationship, although presumably in this ending the parents change their mind because the toys somehow furtively highlight the problem to them?)

...

Ending C: Butlerian Jihad

...somehow the toys convince, like, society writ large, to not give kids iPads.

There are versions of this that are a lame Political Message Movie and versions that are kinda cool.

I don't think they're going to do either.

...

Ending D: Harmony and Balance

Buzz Lightyear was the initial antagonist of Toy Story 1, but the movie ends with him and Woody both being friends and favored toys, and helping each other through their psychological problems.

LilyPad looks to kind of be a "Young Lady's Illustrated Primer" from Diamond Age, (i.e. being actually valuable for teaching Bonnie stuff. We see that she speaks Spanish Español, and hints of being more broadly educational).

In the trailer we see Bonnie staring zombie-eyed at the iPad. Maybe it ends with the toys teaching LilyPad how to be a better friend/parent/educator/toy – something helps Bonnie learn but also prompts her to go outside and play.

I can imagine okay-ish versions of this ending, that sort of hint at toys all over the world working together to try and nudge kids and AIs toward a wholesome coexistence, where it's not just one family making a better choice but we see how society is steering towards a better equilibrium.

But, it still feels like this is an unstable equilibrium. C'mon. We know the tide is still coming. I would be surprised if the movie depicted anything like the amount of change/effort necessary for this ending to feel earned and enduring.

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Ending E: Accepting the End

Toy Story 2 was about accepting that eventually, your relationship will fundamentally change. Kids grow up, they no longer need you the same way. The choice given to Woody is to then turn away from Andy, knowing that his relationship is ephemeral.

But, Woody chooses Andy. "You're right. I can't stop Andy from growing up. But, I wouldn't miss it for the world."

There's an alternate version of Ending D, where instead of pretending like we've found a new stable equilibrium of Toy/Tech/Human harmony... the movie acknowledges that the change isn't over. And the toys, both Woody/Buzz and (maybe?) ones across the world, grapple with the fact that this change is still in progress. And it may indeed mean that one day, toys will be obsolete, or must fundamentally change as a whole.

But, seeing that, choosing to still do their best to help steward the children while they can, being part of the journey as long as they can...

...okay having typed that out, I think there's a decent chance this is what they will go for. It grapples with the enormity of the situation, avoids having to make that strong a stand while acknowledging "look, we don't really know what's coming but we (the screenwriters) are going to do our best, and our characters will too."

This leaves the question of "okay, but, that's a hella cliffhanger. What's Toy Story *6*?"

Toy Story 6 could be a reprise of Toy Story 3, facing oblivion, this time across all toy-civilization. (See also, all human civilization).

Toy Story 6 could also be a reprise of Toy Story 4, realizing you must fundamentally change to adapt to a new world/situation – this time everyone across all toy-civilization instead of just one old cowboy doll. (See also, all human civilization).

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Ending F: Hard Science-Fantasy?

The movies have always left the toys with a mythic, unexplained origin. Why are these toys walking around? Why do the parents not notice? How do Buzz Lightyears end up believing they are space rangers but still instinctively knowing to flop down on the floor if any humans walk in?

What are the limits of toys who break out of the Toy/Child script, that we've seen them do occasionally?

Part of why Toy Story 5 feels forced to me is, the fact that the toys aren't human and magic is real, suddenly strains my disbelief in a way it didn't before.

Obviously I'm a LessWrong-guy who has pretty oddly specific beliefs about how scary AI is, but, I think most people are feeling an unsettling sense that AI is potentially scary in an existential way, even if they have different guesses about exactly how that plys out.

I don't think they'd choose to do this, and, I don't think it actually would make as good a movie.

But, it is an option on the menu to make a movie where we take the brute fact of toykind's existence and the tide of AI that's coming, and... just, let that be a coherent-ish world and roll the simulation forward and depict whatever happens when toy magic and AI both exist.

I don't think they'll do it, but, I'd read that fanfic.

It is interesting that, the end of a civilization is also not something entirely new. Quoth C.S. Lewis:

In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. ‘How are we to live in an atomic age?’ I am tempted to reply: ‘Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat at night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents.

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented… It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

But... there aren't... rituals for the ending of a civilization, that I know of. (Are there?). Rome fell, but nobody has prescribed a social script for a civilization facing either physical or psychological/meaning-making, to confront it's end together.