Hi all, interesting forum, I came across it via the Future Fund’s AI Worldview Prize. I would like to draw you attention to a manuscript my friend Jay Coggan and I wrote which is relevant to the question if AGI, or even an artificial superintelligence will emerge soon, or even within the next 100 years. We think it’s completely unlikely, on energetic grounds. We use the processing needs of the Blue Brain Project to extrapolate how much energy would be needed to simulate a whole human brain. The Blue Brain Project is to date the most detailed brain simulation, but it STILL leaves out many details, so the extrapolated energy need is in fact a vast UNDERestimation of the actual energy to simulate a human brain.
When using the extrapolated value from the Blue Brain Project, and making some very generous assumptions on brain simulations versus emulations, we get an energy use for human, or super-human intelligence which is orders of magnitude above what the US produces in electricity.
Unless there will be a way of computing completely different from silicone-semiconductor based computing, closer to biology, AGI or a superintelligence are completely unlikely.
Hence we estimate that:
AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043, absolutely unlikely, that's in 10 years, <<1%
Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI: highly unlikely, <1%
AGI will be developed by January 1, 2100: highly unlikely, <2%
The link to the full manuscript on a preprint server is here:
(note: I already submitted this directly to the AI Worldview Prize, but I think the community here would be interested, too).