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The Open Thread tag is here.
Covid19Projections has been one of the most successful coronavirus models in large part because it is as 'model-free' and simple as possible, using ML to backtrack parameters for a simple SEIR model from death data only. This has proved useful because case numbers are skewed by varying numbers of tests, so deaths are more consistently reliable as a metric. You can see the code here.
However, in countries doing a lot of testing, with a reasonable number of cases but with very few deaths, like most of Europe, the model is not that informative, and essentially predicts near 0 deaths out to the limit of its measure. This is expected - the model is optimised for the US.
Estimating SEIR parameters based on deaths works well when you have a lot of deaths to count, if you don't then you need another method. Estimating purely based on cases has its own pitfalls - see this from epidemic forecasting, which mistook an increase in testing in the UK mid-july for a sharp jump in cases and wrongly inferred brief jump in R_t. As far as I understand their paper, the estimate of R_t from case data adjusts for delays in infection to onset and for other things, but not for the positivity r... (read more),,,
Greetings all, and thanks for having me! :) I'm an AI enthusiast, based in Hamilton NZ. Where until recently I was enrolled in and studying strategic management and computer science. Specifically, 'AI technical strategy'. After corona virus and everything that's been happening in the world, I've moved away from formal studies and are now focusing on using my skills etc, in a more interactive and 'messy' way. Which means more time online with groups like LessWrong. :) I've been interested in rationality and the art of dialogue since early 2000's. I've been involved in startups and AI projects, from a commercial perspective for a while. Specifically in the agri-tech space. I would like to understand and grow appreciation more, for forums like this, where the technology essentially enables better and more productive human interaction.
Is it plausible that an AGI could have some sort of exploit (buffer overflow maybe?) that could be exploited (maybe by an optimization daemon…?) and cause a sign flip in the utility function?
How about an error during self-improvement that leads to the same sort of outcome? Should we expect an AGI to sanity-check its successors, even if it’s only at or below human intelligence?
Sorry for the dumb questions, I’m just still nervous about this sort of thing.
It freaks me out that we have Loss Functions and also Utility Functions and their type signature is exactly the same, but if you put one in a place where the other was expected, it causes literally the worst possible thing to happen that ever could happen. I am not comfortable with this at all.
Many entities have sanity-checking tools. They fail. Many have careful developers. They fail. Many have automated tests. They fail. And so on. Disasters happen because all of those will fail to work every time and therefore all will fail some time. If any of that sounds improbable, as if there would have to be a veritable malevolent demon arranging to make every single safeguard fail or backfire (literally, sometimes, like the recent warehouse explosion - triggered by welders trying to safeguard it!), you should probably read more about complex systems and their failures to understand how normal it all is.
I've been thinking about "good people" lately and realized I've met three. They do exist.
They were not just kind, wise, brave, funny, and fighting, but somehow simply "good" overall; rather different, but they all shared the ability of taking knives off and out of others' souls and then just not adding any new ones. Sheer magic.
One has probably died of old age already; one might have gone to war and died there, and the last one is falling asleep on the other side of the bed as I'm typing. But still - only three people I would describe exactly so.
A first actually credible claim of coronavirus reinfection? Potentially good news as the patient was asymptomatic and rapidly produced a strong antibody response.
GPT-3 made me update considerably on various beliefs related to AI: it is a piece of evidence for the connectionist thesis, and I think one large enough that we should all be paying attention.
There are 3 clear exponentials trends coming together: Moore's law, the AI compute/$ budget, and algorithm efficiency. Due to these trends and the performance of GPT-3, I believe it is likely humanity will develop transformative AI in the 2020s.
The trends also imply a fastly rising amount of investments into compute, especially if compounded with the positive e... (read more)
(Saw a typo, had a random thought) The joke "English is important, but Math is importanter" could and perhaps should be told as "English is important, but Math iser important." It seems to me (at times more strongly), that there should be comparative and superlative forms of verbs, not just adjectives and adverbs. To express the thrust of *doing smth. more* / *happening more*, when no adjectival comparison quite suffices.
I think (although I cannot be 100% sure) that the number of votes that appears for a post on the Alignment Forum is the number of vote of its Less Wrong version. The two number of votes are the same for the last 4 posts on the Alignment Forum, which seems weird. Is it a feature I was not aware of?
Is there a reason there is a separate tag for akrasia and procrastination? Could they be combined?
Do you have opinions about Khan academy? I want to use it to teach my son (10yo) math, do you think it's a good idea? Is there a different resource that you think is better?
Many alignment approaches require at least some initial success at directly eliciting human preferences to get off the ground - there have been some excellent recent posts about the problems this presents. In part because of arguments like these, there has been far more focus on the question of preference elicitation than on the question of preference aggregation:... (read more)
A possible future of AGI occurred to me today and I'm curious if it's plausible enough to be worth considering. Imagine that we have created a friendly AGI that is superintelligent and well-aligned to benefit humans. It has obtained enough power to prevent the creation of other AI, or at least the potential of other AI from obtaining resources, and does so with the aim of self-preservation so it can continue to benefit humanity.
So far, so good, right? Here comes the issue: this AGI includes within its core alignment functions some kind of restri... (read more)
Meta: I suggest the link to the Open Thread tag to be this one, sorted by new.
I just came over from Lex Fridman’s podcast which is great. My username Xor is a Boolean logic operator from ti-basic I love the way it sounds and am super excited since this is the first time I have ever been able to get it as a username. The operator means this if 1 is true and 0 is false then (1 xor 0) is a true statement, while (1 xor 1) is a false statement. It basically means that the statement is true only if a single parameter is true.
Right now I am mainly curious on how people learn. The brain functions involved, chemicals, and studied tools. I have been enjoying that and am curios if it has discussed on here as the quality of content as well as discussions has been very impressive.
Hi! I'm Helaman Wilson, I'm living in New Zealand with my physicist father, almost-graduated-molecular-biologist mother, and six of my seven siblings.
I've been homeschooled as in "given support, guidance, and library access" for essentially my entire life, which currently clocks in at nearly twenty two years from birth. I've also been raised in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and, having done my best to honestly weigh the evidence for its' doctrine-as-I-understand-it, find myself a firm believer.
I found the Rational meta-community via the ... (read more)
Would it be possible to have a page with all editor shortcuts and commands (maybe a cheatsheet) easily accessible? It's a bit annoying to have to look up either this post or the right part of the FAQ to find out how to do something in the editor.