2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Four (Politics, Calibration & Probability, Futurology, Charity & Effective Altruism)

[-]skeptical_lurker9y81

Have you considered adding the geometric mean for certain questions? It should help a bit to deal with extreamly large answers.

Some things I found interesting:

1) The case for being pro-choice is so strong even neoreactionaries and fascists are pro-choice. Interestingly, on this specific issue, conservatives are to the right of fascists!

2) On political opinions, HBD is about an objective, falsifiable, scientifically mesureable characteristic of the world, whereas the other opinions are opinions. Opinions on HBD also correlates strongly with other views, and so I am interested as to how poeple's opinions would change if it was proved to them that the truth about HBD is the opposite of what they currently believe it to be. Would their other views change?

3) Some of the '90% of humanity die' risks seem extremely low probability to me, and I am perplexed by why so many people chose them:

Nuclear war: +4.800% 326 (20.6%)

The worst case scenario for nuclear war at the hight of the cold war was about 40% of humanity dies. I suppose that its possible that vast numbers of new bombs could be built, without similar investment in bomb shelters, but this does seem a little implausible.

Environmental collapse (including global warming): +1.500% 252 (16.0%)

In the 'Cretaceous hothouse' period CO2 levels were 8x higher, and there was still enough vegetation to support giant dinosaurs far bigger than the largest animal today. The worst-case scenarios are a decrease in economic growth and a migrant crisis, not 90% of humanity dies.

Economic / political collapse: -1.400% 136 (8.6%)

Its difficult enough to imagine political collapse killing 90% of the population in one country. The Syrian civil war has killed 3% of the population. The Japanese invasion of China killed 4%. I'm aware of some wars that killed 50% - parts of the thirty years war, the Mongol invasion of China - but I think these were combined with famines or disease outbreaks. In the 1870 Japanese civil war, the samurai combatants took over 99% casualties, but the non-combatants survived. 90% deaths of one country would be mind-boggling. But 90% deaths of the whole of humanity? A political collapse that affects the entire world, including countries of every culture? Including China and other countries that are not democracies?

[-]Houshalter9y111

The case for being pro-choice is so strong even neoreactionaries and fascists are pro-choice. Interestingly, on this specific issue, conservatives are to the right of fascists!

Probably more a case of demographics than the ideology itself. Total speculation, but I imagine someone who identifies as fascist is in the "liberal" demographic but happens to be into weird political beliefs in general, while someone who identifies as conservative might have just inherited that view from their family and upbringing. In general, I think old "conservative social issues" are becoming less popular among the younger generation. As our culture changes and gays and abortion become normal, the objections to them will decrease.

On political opinions, HBD is about an objective, falsifiable, scientifically mesureable characteristic of the world, whereas the other opinions are opinions. Opinions on HBD also correlates strongly with other views, and so I am interested as to how poeple's opinions would change if it was proved to them that the truth about HBD is the opposite of what they currently believe it to be. Would their other views change?

I think HBD is a fantastic test for true rationality. It's a rare case where a scientific fact conflicts with deeply ingrained political and cultural values.

The worst case scenario for nuclear war at the hight of the cold war was about 40% of humanity dies. I suppose that its possible that vast numbers of new bombs could be built, without similar investment in bomb shelters, but this does seem a little implausible.

The people directly killed by bombs are only a tiny fraction of the casualties. Afterwards you have the possibility of nuclear winter, which could radically change the climate for the worse. You have contamination of vast amounts of farmland and food supplies, and the destruction of the global economy. Even countries that weren't hit directly would be have tons of issues and would probably collapse.

In the 'Cretaceous hothouse' period CO2 levels were 8x higher, and there was still enough vegetation to support giant dinosaurs far bigger than the largest animal today. The worst-case scenarios are a decrease in economic growth and a migrant crisis, not 90% of humanity dies.

Sudden changes to the climate are bad. In the past the climate changed very very slowly, so that life had a chance to adapt. CO2 is acidifying the oceans and could destroy most of the oceans ecosystems. I tend to agree that humanity would probably survive though.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y90

I think HBD is a fantastic test for true rationality. It's a rare case where a scientific fact conflicts with deeply ingrained political and cultural values.

Unfortunately it might also be an area where epistemic and instrumental rationality clash. In fact, most of the world does not have freedom of speech in the same way the US does - if one advocated HBD in, say, Germany, could one be thrown in prison in the same way people are imprisoned for saying 'seig heil'? On reflection, that might be a bad example, because there is a good reason why laws prohibiting Nazism exist in specifically Germany, but laws against racial hatred exist in many other countries too, and I wonder if "I am just pointing out a scientific fact, it doesn't mean I hate anyone" would be a successful legal defence when the judge and jury are not rationalists.

The people directly killed by bombs are only a tiny fraction of the casualties. Afterwards you have the possibility of nuclear winter, which could radically change the climate for the worse. You have contamination of vast amounts of farmland and food supplies, and the destruction of the global economy. Even countries that weren't hit directly would be have tons of issues and would probably collapse.

The study I am thinking of did account for this. It is thought that nuclear winter would last 6 months (based on global cooling from very large volcanic eruptions, 3 km^3 of ash cools the planet by 0.5 degrees for 6 months) and in the worst-case scenario this happens at the right time of the year to make the harvests fail. Africa starves and takes high casualties even without being nuked, while Japan raids nearby countries for food. I'm not sure why they singled out Japan for stealing food, maybe they were still angry over WWII or had some other reason to believe that Japan would behave like that.

There have been quite a few airburst nuclear tests, and the background radiation on earth has barely changed. While the half life of uranium is millions or billions of years (depending upon isotope) the products of a nuclear explosion have very short half-lives - the worst would be over within an hour. Not only do we not have enough bombs to contaminate the world, but ground zero would be habitable again after a few months. Hiroshima was rebuilt, not abandoned, after WWII.

Yes, I agree many countries would collaspe, and moreover that the primary combatants quite possibly would take over 90% casualties, the low global rate being largely because many countries emerge unscathed. If there were some reason for most countries to be nuked, and enough bombs to nuke them all, then 90% global casualties is a possiblity, and while I think a nuclear war between allmost all countries is unlikly, its still a lot more likly then 90% of humanity killed by environmental or political collapse.

Sudden changes to the climate are bad. In the past the climate changed very very slowly, so that life had a chance to adapt.

Life is pretty good at surviving. Humans can live in the arctic circle and in tropical rainforest. Hopefully, by this time we would also have better technology to help us.

CO2 is acidifying the oceans and could destroy most of the oceans ecosystems.

This is a little worrying. I thought it was mostly 'just' the corral reefs, which, while very pretty, are not vital to everything.

[-]Houshalter9y60

Unfortunately it might also be an area where epistemic and instrumental rationality clash. In fact, most of the world does not have freedom of speech in the same way the US does - if one advocated HBD in, say, Germany, could one be thrown in prison in the same way people are imprisoned for saying 'seig heil'?

There is a difference between advocating something and merely believing it. But I'm mostly skeptical of the people that put "strongly disagree" on that question. As opposed to "disagree" or "neutral". The fact that it's so correlated with political ideology is more evidence that it's just political bias.

If I lived 200 years ago, I wouldn't go around advocating atheism. But I might have believed it privately, and I would be more skeptical of the openmindedness of people that say they "strongly oppose the evils of atheism".

The study I am thinking of did account for this.

I really don't know. When I researched this it seems like the effects are pretty hard to estimate. Different models give very different results. A recentish study using more modern climate models shows that the effects would be catastrophic and last for multiple years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#2007_study_on_global_nuclear_war

the products of a nuclear explosion have very short half-lives - the worst would be over within an hour. Not only do we not have enough bombs to contaminate the world, but ground zero would be habitable again after a few months.

Those first few months are the problem though. The crops and livestock die or absorb the radioactive isotopes. The people too if they don't happen to have a fallout shelter handy.

Also the nuclear bombs themselves aren't the only concern. You would have to deal with all the waste left in the cities they destroy. Nuclear power plants would melt down with no one to contain them. Vast amounts of chemical waste would leak from abandoned chemical plants and waste storage. Oil would leak and pollute the oceans with no cleanup.

I don't know how to estimate the damage of this. But it should be at least a bad or worse than major industrial accidents of the past, like Bhopal, deepwater horizon, or Chernobyl. But all happening at once and with no one left to organize any kind of response.

while I think a nuclear war between allmost all countries is unlikly, its still a lot more likly then 90% of humanity killed by environmental or political collapse.

I think you are underestimating the secondary effects. I imagine a complete destruction of the global economy. There isn't enough food to go around and lots of countries are starving. This would lead to more war and chaos.

A few thousand years ago the civilizations of the mediterranean all collapsed almost at once. It's now speculated to be the result of a serious drought and bad weather. The states that couldn't feed their population got overthrown, and their hungry populations went to war with neighboring countries for food, until nothing of the old orders remained. It was a serious setback for humanity.

If that happened in the modern world, technological civilization might end and never be restarted. The modern world depends on hugely complex infrastructure and tons of different industries and inputs. If we lose that, it would be very difficult to rebuild. We've already extracted most of the easy to get to minerals and fossil fuels. Much farmland has been degraded from overuse and depends on inputs of fertilizer, irrigation systems, and of course modern machinery which would be difficult to replace.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y30

There is a difference between advocating something and merely believing it. But I'm mostly skeptical of the people that put "strongly disagree" on that question. As opposed to "disagree" or "neutral". The fact that it's so correlated with political ideology is more evidence that it's just political bias.

This correlation is what interests me - it does fit with political bias, but could it also be that the political views are a product of beliefs in HBD?

I really don't know. When I researched this it seems like the effects are pretty hard to estimate. Different models give very different results. A recentish study using more modern climate models shows that the effects would be catastrophic and last for multiple years:

I think I might have put too much faith in one study. Perhaps 90% deaths is plausible.

Those first few months are the problem though. The crops and livestock die or absorb the radioactive isotopes. The people too if they don't happen to have a fallout shelter handy.

The crops may absorb the isotopes, but the isotopes will continue to decay, and so by the time the crops are to be eaten they should be fairly safe. I agree that there would be terrible casualties, but I don't think it would be as bad as having to spend a decade underground.

Moreover, my main point here is that the cloud of radioactive death might kill 95% of the US/Russia (or whoever the primary belligerents are) but by the time it reaches Brazil for instance it would be a lot less radioactive.

If that happened in the modern world, technological civilization might end and never be restarted.

I agree. The end of technological civilization is a different point from simple mass casualties - if 'only' 40% of humanity dies, but those 40% are concentrated in first world countries and urban centres, would the survivors be able to rebuild? Machinery would continue to work for a while, although the oil distribution chain would break for a while at least, but in the long run machinery would break. The factories tend to be in the first world countries that have been nuked, the universities in the cities have been mostly destroyed. Moreover there would likely be a general luddite tendency to blame technology for the crisis. Its probably easier to restablish resource extraction then to restart scientific research, and so we would be less likely to develop renewable energy before the fossil fuels run out. I suppose the end of technological civiliseation would reduce the population back to medieval levels, although this would be a long process of resources slowly running out and machinery slowly degrading.

[-]pepe_prime9y10

Houshalter

If that happened in the modern world, technological civilization might end and never be restarted. The modern world depends on hugely complex infrastructure and tons of different industries and inputs. If we lose that, it would be very difficult to rebuild. We've already extracted most of the easy to get to minerals and fossil fuels. Much farmland has been degraded from overuse and depends on inputs of fertilizer, irrigation systems, and of course modern machinery which would be difficult to replace.

skeptical_lurker

I agree. The end of technological civilization is a different point from simple mass casualties - if 'only' 40% of humanity dies, but those 40% are concentrated in first world countries and urban centres, would the survivors be able to rebuild? Machinery would continue to work for a while, although the oil distribution chain would break for a while at least, but in the long run machinery would break. The factories tend to be in the first world countries that have been nuked, the universities in the cities have been mostly destroyed. Moreover there would likely be a general luddite tendency to blame technology for the crisis. Its probably easier to restablish resource extraction then to restart scientific research, and so we would be less likely to develop renewable energy before the fossil fuels run out. I suppose the end of technological civiliseation would reduce the population back to medieval levels, although this would be a long process of resources slowly running out and machinery slowly degrading.

I've often heard claims like these and wonder what the exact date of regression would be. Suppose the low hanging fruit have been removed for a number of modern resources (oil, helium, fissionables, rare metals). We still have quite a lot of coal (in the US and Russia), wind, and hydro power for energy. We also have abundant common metals, which might be more accessible than before if civilization collapsed and left a bunch of scrap around. My understanding is that coal and modern smelting techniques with common metals get us to at least 1850. Furthermore, modern scientific knowledge can't be significantly lost because this requires destroying virtually all books or other records. Hence I would expect at least some of humanity to never slip further back than this point.

I'm sort of nitpicking though. I agree that 40% dead could easily lead to 90% dead.

[-]Commander Zander9y30

The preceding comments are a good example of Less Wrong users taking a contentious disagreement and coming to a courteous equilibrium. Impressive.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y10

Thanks!

[-]ChristianKl9y50

In fact, most of the world does not have freedom of speech in the same way the US does - if one advocated HBD in, say, Germany, could one be thrown in prison in the same way people are imprisoned for saying 'seig heil'?

There are things that you can't legally say in Germany but standard claims about how different races have different IQ are not among the claims that are illegal in Germany. Berlin former minister of finance wrote a HBD book making the case about how IQ is heritable and how that should inform policy making.

[-]Good_Burning_Plastic9y10

giant dinosaurs far bigger than the largest animal today

You mean largest land animal today. The blue whale is about the size of the largest dinosaur ever.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y10

A valid nitpick, although sharks were also far bigger compared to modern sharks. Not sure to what extent this implies that there was more food.

[-]selylindi9y10

2) On political opinions, HBD is about an objective, falsifiable, scientifically mesureable characteristic of the world, whereas the other opinions are opinions.

That's not how I interpreted the item. This was a political quiz, so to my mind it's not about "Does X exist?", but "Do you favor more X than the status quo?" For example, liberal abortion laws exist, and feminism exists, and higher taxes exist. Similarly, HBD may exist depending on its precise definition. But what's politically relevant is whether you favor more liberal abortion laws, more feminism, more tax increases, more HBD. So it's quite likely that a substantial fraction of quiz-takers interpreted being "pro-HBD" as being simply an NRXish way of saying "pro-racist-policies".

[-]skeptical_lurker9y00

liberal abortion laws exist

illiberal abortion laws exist too, in some countries. Maybe in future tests HBD should be split into "is HBD true?" and "do you want HBD to be true?" to avoid this sort of confusion.

But what's politically relevant is whether you favor more liberal abortion laws, more feminism, more tax increases, more HBD.

The government can raise taxes, it can't raise HBD.

[-]gjm9y70

It looks like the analysis didn't suppress responses that gave something other than 50 as an answer to the question about a coin flip. It probably should.

[-]namespace9y10

Oh, yes, sorry.

[-]Luke_A_Somers9y50

Is there a thread for the calibration question analysis? I have some questions and comments about that, more than this.

[-]Houshalter9y30

I'm going to post it to it's own thread when it's totally complete (the analysis itself is done but I just don't like the way the sections are organized.) You can ask me any questions you have. I'd be very interested in any suggestions to make it better or less confusing.

[-]Luke_A_Somers9y40

First, on the Hamilton question, it's not at all clear that the official answer is the correct one given the question. A very reasonable reading of the question would restrict the scope to items currently in circulation. Looking at the question, even knowing you meant 'ever', it feels like an unnatural way of asking. If you clarified, then I at least would have answered higher and with less confidence; and I suspect that almost everyone else would have as well.

Second, there are several questions which had a numeric range - like, say, the Dairy Queen question. Reducing to binary right-wrong seems needlessly lossy. If you convert the confidence of being within 10 years into an expected error on a Gaussian distribution, you can plot the actual deviations vs the expected deviations.

Third, I am trying to figure out if one can do something with the automatic probabilities-to-odds generation scheme discussed... somewhere here. I can't find it. Basically, you'd pair up people who were right on the same questions and see who would win, betting against each other based on their probabilities in such a way that they each expect to win the same amount. Only works between people who shared answers, though. Should be generalizable to people with similar levels of accuracy, and may be generalizable to people with different levels of accuracy.

[-]Houshalter9y10

I didn't design the questions and those are the official answers. And it does seems correct to me, that it should include all bills ever printed and not just those currently being printed.

I'm really not sure how to do your second point. I could fit all the answers into a normal distribution sure, but what information does that give me for any specific individual? It doesn't really tell me what their true probability of getting the question correct was, which I can already get from the percent of people that answered each question correctly.

The third idea is interesting, comparing people who got the same number of answers right. But it still does reward luck and prior knowledge. As I showed, people have indistinguishable probabilities of getting each question right, all that differs is how overconfident or underconfident they are.That model seems to produce the best correlations as well.

[-]Sniffnoy9y10

Agree with Luke about the Hamilton questions. I read it about current ones. If it meant "has appeared on", it should say "has appeared on", not "appears on". While certainly the latter can be read as all the ones he's ever appeared on, the more natural interpretation to me means those currently being printed.

You can probably get some idea to what extent it was interpreted this way by looking at the size of the answers. I'd say, if we assume people have some idea how American currency works, then 0-1 probably indicates a "present" interpretation, 3 or more will almost always indicate an "ever" interpretation, and 2 is hard to tell from. But that is assuming people have some idea of how American currency works.

[-]Luke_A_Somers9y10

1) Really?

Alexander Hamilton appears on how many distinct denominations of US Currency

It's the present tense that throws me. I would expect the question to be 'has appeared'. Whatever.

2) That's not what I meant. I mean, you can turn each individual person's prediction/probability pair into a gaussian curve. It is centered on their answer with width such that a 10 year window contains that much probability. You can then use that to get the probability this distribution - and thus, by proxy, the respondent - assigns to the actual year.

3) On such a small data set you can't get rid of luck, let alone differences in knowledge. I think that by picking out people who got the same number correct you do a pretty good job of de-confounding that. It cuts sideways across the bins in the 'mean % correct' vs 'mean % confidence' graph which showed flat performance across confidence, in a way that you can't do straightforwardly otherwise.

[-]John_Maxwell9y50

Thanks for the analysis!

The median amount donated to bugs rights charities is listed as $157.5. That implies that half of survey respondents donated >$150 to bugs rights charities. Obviously this is kind of implausible. I assume the real number who donated to bugs rights charities is 4 people, since the donations sum to $1083.0 and the average amount donated is $270.75. This also goes for the other donation-related questions--just something to keep in mind.

[-]namespace9y30

Yes, this is one of those pieces of the relevant statistics that I did wrong. (Or at the very least, did inoptimally even if the actual series of operations taken is 'correct'.)

I'll fix it eventually, but it'll require a bit of rewriting code first.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y30

This is a good point, although I would partially agree with them - not only am I pro-choice, but I would strongly advice someone to abort if the child would have Down's syndrome for instance. It is the humane thing to do for all involved - you don't condemn a child to sickness and parents to possibly watching a child die before they do.

[-]skeptical_lurker9y00

Well, firstly I'm saying this should be voluntary, and most people are not going to try to commit genocide, especially against their own race. Secondly, do you realise that the number of kids people have already correlates strongly with race and religion? Although, the correlation is more that race correlates with religion and development which in turn causes fertility. I'm not claiming that race causes religion. Thirdly, aborting kids with horrible genetic deceases could actually raise the population after two generations, because the diseases would stop the kids from having kids of their own.

Generally, I don't find the argument "X is bad because it's affects correlates with race" to be plausible, because its so universal. It would stop you doing anything.

Group	Turnout
LessWrong	68.9%
Austrailia	91%
Brazil	78.90%
Britain	66.4%
Canada	68.3%
Finland	70.1%
France	79.48%
Germany	71.5%
India	66.3%
Israel	72%
New Zealand	77.90%
Russia	65.25%
United States	54.9%


Question	Mean	Median	Mode	Stdev
Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads?	49.821	50.0	50.0	3.033
What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?	44.599	50.0	50.0	29.193
What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?	75.727	90.0	99.0	31.893
...in the Milky Way galaxy?	45.966	50.0	10.0	38.395
What is the probability that supernatural events (including God, ghosts, magic, etc) have occurred since the beginning of the universe?	13.575	1.0	1.0	27.576
What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural intelligent entity who created the universe?	15.474	1.0	1.0	27.891
What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?	10.624	0.5	1.0	26.257
What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?	21.225	10.0	5.0	26.782
What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization in that time?	25.263	10.0	1.0	30.510
What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?	25.256	10.0	50.0	28.404
What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?	83.307	90.0	90.0	23.167
What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?	76.310	80.0	80.0	22.933


Question	Count	Percent
People will just idle about in destructive ways	513	16.71%
People need work to be fulfilled and if we eliminate work we'll all feel deep existential angst	543	17.687%
The rich are going to take all the resources for themselves and leave the rest of us to starve or live in poverty	1066	34.723%
The machines won't need us, and we'll starve to death or be otherwise liquidated	416	13.55%


Question	Sum	Mean	Median	Mode	Stdev
Against Malaria Foundation	483935.027	1905.256	300.0	None	7216.020
Schistosomiasis Control Initiative	47908.0	840.491	200.0	1000.0	1618.785
Deworm the World Initiative	28820.0	565.098	150.0	500.0	1432.712
GiveDirectly	154410.177	1429.723	450.0	50.0	3472.082
Any kind of animal rights charity	83130.47	1093.821	154.235	500.0	2313.493
Any kind of bug rights charity	1083.0	270.75	157.5	None	353.396
Machine Intelligence Research Institute	141792.5	1417.925	100.0	100.0	5370.485
Any charity combating nuclear existential risk	491.0	81.833	75.0	100.0	68.060
Any charity combating global warming	13012.0	245.509	100.0	10.0	365.542
Center For Applied Rationality	127101.0	3177.525	150.0	100.0	12969.096
Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence Research Foundation	9429.0	554.647	100.0	20.0	1156.431
Wikipedia	12765.5	53.189	20.0	10.0	126.444
Internet Archive	2975.04	80.406	30.0	50.0	173.791
Any campaign for political office	38443.99	366.133	50.0	50.0	1374.305
Other	564890.46	1661.442	200.0	100.0	4670.805

Affiliation	Income	Charity Contributions	% Income Donated To Charity	Total Survey Charity %	Sample Size
Anarchist	1677900.0	72386.0	4.314%	3.004%	50
Communist	298700.0	19190.0	6.425%	0.796%	13
Conservative	1963000.04	62945.04	3.207%	2.612%	38
Futarchist	1497494.1099999999	166254.0	11.102%	6.899%	31
Left-Libertarian	9681635.613839999	416084.0	4.298%	17.266%	245
Libertarian	11698523.0	214101.0	1.83%	8.885%	190
Moderate	3225475.0	90518.0	2.806%	3.756%	67
Neoreactionary	1383976.0	30890.0	2.232%	1.282%	28
Objectivist	399000.0	1310.0	0.328%	0.054%	10
Other	3150618.0	85272.0	2.707%	3.539%	132
Pragmatist	5087007.609999999	266836.0	5.245%	11.073%	131
Progressive	8455500.440000001	368742.78	4.361%	15.302%	217
Social Democrat	8000266.54	218052.5	2.726%	9.049%	237
Socialist	2621693.66	78484.0	2.994%	3.257%	126

Community	Count	% In Community	Sample Size
LessWrong	136	38.418%	354
LessWrong Meetups	109	50.463%	216
LessWrong Facebook Group	83	48.256%	172
LessWrong Slack	22	39.286%	56
SlateStarCodex	343	40.98%	837
Rationalist Tumblr	175	49.716%	352
Rationalist Facebook	89	58.94%	151
Rationalist Twitter	24	40.0%	60
Effective Altruism Hub	86	86.869%	99
Good Judgement(TM) Open	23	74.194%	31
PredictionBook	31	51.667%	60
Hacker News	91	35.968%	253
#lesswrong on freenode	19	24.675%	77
#slatestarcodex on freenode	9	24.324%	37
#chapelperilous on freenode	2	18.182%	11
/r/rational	117	42.545%	275
/r/HPMOR	110	47.414%	232
/r/SlateStarCodex	93	37.959%	245
One or more private 'rationalist' groups	91	47.15%	193

Affiliation	EA Income	EA Charity	Sample Size
Anarchist	761000.0	57500.0	18
Futarchist	559850.0	114830.0	15
Left-Libertarian	5332856.0	361975.0	112
Libertarian	2725390.0	114732.0	53
Moderate	583247.0	56495.0	22
Other	1428978.0	69950.0	49
Pragmatist	1442211.0	43780.0	43
Progressive	4004097.0	304337.78	107
Social Democrat	3423487.45	149199.0	93
Socialist	678360.0	34751.0	41

20

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Four (Politics, Calibration & Probability, Futurology, Charity & Effective Altruism)

20

20

Politics

Political Opinions By Political Affiliation

Miscellaneous Politics

PoliticalInterest

Voting

AmericanParties

Calibration And Probability Questions

Calibration Questions

Probability Questions

Futurology

Cryonics

Cryonics

CryonicsNow

CryonicsPossibility

Singularity

SingularityYear

Genetic Engineering

ModifyOffspring

GeneticTreament

GeneticImprovement

GeneticCosmetic

GeneticOpinionD

GeneticOpinionI

GeneticOpinionC

Technological Unemployment

LudditeFallacy

UnemploymentYear

EndOfWork

EndOfWorkConcerns

Existential Risk

XRiskType

Charity And Effective Altruism

Charitable Giving

Income

IncomeCharityPortion

XriskCharity

CharityDonations

Effective Altruism

Vegetarian

EAKnowledge

EAIdentity

EACommunity

EADonations

Effective Altruist Anxiety

EAAnxiety

EAOpinion

Interesting Tables