I've only watched some prediction market news from the outside, so forgive my basic question, but are prediction markets supposed to bring in money besides having new entrants bring in cash?
I've often seen prediction markets compared to stock markets, but the stock market is generally positive-sum because you're investing money in profitable businesses that pay dividends. In contrast, if a prediction market begins with 1000 people with $1000 each (and no one else joins or brings in more money), can it ever have more than $1,000,000 in the market?
If the answer is "no, it doesn't generate money", isn't that a big problem for prediction markets as a long-term concept? It means everyone will be fighting over a limited pie, and there will be no reason for the average person to join the prediction market (they just stand to lose their money to the experts). Is this a problem holding back prediction markets now, and are there ideas to fix it?
Yes. PredictIt used to attract a lot of "dumb money" - people who just wanted to bet on their favorite candidate (or against disfavored candidates). They also used to run weekly markets on polling averages and things like the number of times Trump would tweet that tended to attract people who just wanted to do some skill-based gambling, whether they actually had the skill or not.
PredictIt charges high transaction fees with no outside subsidies, so all o... (read more)