[ Parent Question — Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread ]

If I interact with someone with nCov for an hour, how likely am I to get nCov?

by Raemon1 min read1st Mar 20208 comments



I'm guessing data is limited here, but a related-related question might be "how likely am I to catch the flu or a few other common diseases by interacting with a victim for an hour?"

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" In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%. "


Answer depends on several things

1. Where you met, temperature, humidity, degree of ventilation

2. Distance and intensity of interaction and exchange of fomites

3. Degree of infectivity (were they coughing and their viral shedding; where they are in illness course)

4. Hygiene, theirs and yours, including hygienic behaviors

5. Your level of immunity (are you already immune, are you immunocompromised, etc)