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Rationality lessons from Overwatch, a multiplayer first-person shooter:
1) Learning when you're wrong: The killcam, which shows how I died from the viewpoint of the person who killed me, often corrects my misconception of how I died. Real life needs a killcam that shows you the actual causes of your mistakes. Too bad that telling someone why they are wrong is usually considered impolite.
2) You get what you measure: Overwatch's post-game scoring gives metals for teamwork activities such as healing and shots blocked and this contributes to players' willingness to help their teammates.
3) Living in someone else's shoes: The game has several different classes of characters that have different strengths and weaknesses. Even if you rarely play a certain class, you get a lot from occasionally playing it to gain insight into how to cooperate with and defeat members of this class.
Addressing 1) "Learning when you're wrong" (in a more general sense):
Absolutely a good thing to do, but the problem is that you're still losing time making the mistakes. We're rationalists; we can do better.
I can't remember what book I read it in, but I read about a practice used in projects called a "pre-mortem." In contrast to a post-mortem, in which the cause of death is found after the death, a pre-mortem assumes that the project/effort/whatever has already failed, and forces the people involved to think about why.
Taking it as a given that the project has failed forces people to be realistic about the possible causes of failures. I think.
In any case, this struck me as a really good idea.
Overwatch example: If you know the enemy team is running a Mcree, stay away from him to begin with. That flashbang is dangerous.
Real life example: Assume that you haven't met your goal of writing x pages or amassing y wealth or reaching z people with your message. Why didn't you?
I am trying to outline main trends in AI safety this year, may I ask an advise what I should add or remove from the following list?
1.Elon Musk became the main player in AI field with his OpenAI program. But the idea of AI openness now opposed by his mentor Nick Bostrom, who is writing an article which is questioning safety of the idea of openness in the field of AI. http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/openness.pdf Personally I think that here we see an example of arrogance of billionaire. He intuitively come to idea which looks nice, appealing and may work... (read more)
The Einstein Toolkit Consortium is developing and supporting open software for relativistic astrophysics
this is a core product, that you can attach modules to for specific models that you want to run. able to handle GR on a cosmological scale !
Say you are a strong believer and advocate for the Silicon Valley startup tech culture, but you want to be able to pass an Ideological Turing Test to show that you are not irrational or biased. In other words, you need to write some essays along the lines of "Startups are Dumb" or "Why You Should Stay at Your Big Company Job". What kind of arguments would you use?
Huh? You are proposing a very stark, black-and-white, all-or-nothing position. Recall that for a rationalist a belief has a probability associated with it. It doesn't have to be anywhere near 1. Moreover, a rationalist can "believe" (say, with probability > 90%) something against which good arguments exist. It just so happens that the arguments pro are better and more numerous than the arguments con. That does not mean that the arguments con are not good or do not exist.
And, of course, you should not think yourself omniscient. One of the benefits of steelmanning is that it acquaints you with the counterarguments. Would you know what they are if you didn't look?
I didn't realize that the biggest supporter of UBI in the US is the ex-leader of the Service Employees Union. Guess i will have to read that book next. Have Agars 'Humanities End' to tackle next..
and a write-up on why the elites don't get the Brexit drama right..
Is the EU regulations on algorithmic decision-making and a “right to explanation” positive for our future? Does it make a world with UFAI less likely?
Room for improvement in Australia’s overseas development aid... (read more)
In the quest to optimize my sleep I have found over the last days that I relaxed a lot more as usual. I sleep on the side but I put cushion between my back and the wall so that part of my weight rests on the back and part rests on the mattress of the bed.
Are there any real reasons why standard beds are flat? Or is it just a cultural custom like our standard toilet design that exists for stupid reasons?
not that I know of. Various suggestions of sleeping with a body pillow exist. Hammocks exist. Plenty of people take naps on couches or in reclining chairs.
I wonder if it has anything to do with ease of manufacture.
I am sure you have read this: www.lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/mvf/
(relevant side note) Traditional Japanese beds are harder and thinner than western beds.
no unfortunately it does not, but it has other details that might be informative.
Is post-rationalism dead? I'm following some trails and the most updated material is at least three years old.
If so, good riddance?
Estimation of timing of AI risk
I want to once again try to assess expected time until Strong AI. I will estimate prior probability of AI, and then try to update it based on recent evidences.
At first, I will try to prove the following prior probability of AI: "If AI is possible, it most likely will be built in the 21 century, or it will be proven that the task has some very tough hidden obstacles". Arguments for this prior probability:
Science power argument. We know that humanity was able to solve many very complex tasks in the past, and it to
Comp Vision and Machine Learning conference on in Vegas. Some recommended reading at the bottom
and this is one guy blogging it, must be a lot of twittering too...
Quantified hedonism - Personal Key Performance Indicators
The phrase burn the boats comes from the VIking practice of burning boats on the shore before invading so they have to win and settle. No retreat, it's an inspiring analogy, but I heard it in the context of another Real Social Dynamics video, so the implication is to approach sets as if there is no retreat? Bizaare, those guys.....anyway that RSDPapa video suggested that personal KPI's were useful. What's measured gets improved, or so the saying goes. So which KPI's should you choose? After some thou... (read more)
Having been at the self-dev, PUA, systems, psychology, lesswrong, kegan, philosophy, and other things - game for a very long time. My discerning eye suggests that some of the model is good, and some is bad. My advice to anyone looking at that model is that there are equal parts shit and diamonds. If you haven't been reading in this area for 9 years you can't see what's what. Don't hold anything too closely but be a sponge and absorb it all. Throw out the shit when you come across it and keep the diamonds.
At the end of the 4 (KWML) pages suggest some various intelligent and reasonable ways to develop one's self: