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Conversational moves in EA / Rationality that I like for epistemics
Can I bet the last 3 points are a joke?
Anyway, do we have a method to find out check-points or milestones for betting on a progress against a certain problem( ex. AI development safety, Earth warming)?
This is a butterfly idea, but it gestures at something that's probably true: our intuitions of whether something is a joke can be used to generate jokes, or at least be amused when we find out (in either direction - we were right, or we were wrong). I'm not quite up for a babble on the topic, but I kind of hope someone explores it.
"Butterfly idea" is real (there was a post proposing and explaining it as terminology; perhaps someone else can link it.)
"Gesture at something" is definitely real, I use it myself.
"Do a babble" is new to me but I'd bet on it being real also.
I got frightened off by the ratio you've offered, so I'm not taking it, but thank you for offering. I might reconsider with some lesser amount that I can consider play money. Is there even a viable platform/service for a (maybe) $1:$100 individual bet like this?
Haha! $1 is not worth the transaction cost to me. Let us consider it moot, and I'll let you know I've used all three phrases and had them used by others in convo with me.
Thanks for the links as they clarified a lot to me. The names of the tactics/techniques sounded strange to me and after unsuccessful googling for their meanings I started to believe it was a play with your readers.l, sorry if this suspicious of mine seemed rude.
The second part was curiosity to explore some potential cases of "What could we bet on?".