At which stage of Wardley Evolution will we reach AGI?
Right now we are in the "Custom Built" stage, during this stage, building something competitive takes an incredible investment in money and talent, so the playing field is small and it's easier to coordiate.
As we move into the "Product" stage, that's the most dangerous. There's no longer huge R&D costs, so many people can enter the game. This is also when the landscape is the most competitive and players are willing to do the most to get ahead, so they're more likely to "move fast and break things".
Then, as we move into the "Commodity" stage, things get a bit safer again. The market usually thins out as winners emerge, and since everyone basically has the same features, we wouldn't expect drastic shifts that create AGI. At this stage, a further question becomes
Are the companies that win the commodity game safety conscious? Because they have a huge leg up in both influencing and monitoring the further developments of AI.