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Forecasting & Prediction
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Applied to
My guess for why I was wrong about US housing
by
Raemon
2d
ago
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Manifold Predicted the AI Extinction Statement and CAIS Wanted it Deleted
by
David Chee
4d
ago
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Using Consensus Mechanisms as an approach to Alignment
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Prometheus
6d
ago
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Expert trap (Part 2 of 3) – how hindsight, hierarchy, and confirmation biases break conductivity and accuracy of knowledge
by
Paweł Sysiak
7d
ago
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The Base Rate Times, news through prediction markets
by
vandemonian
11d
ago
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Some Thoughts on Conditional Forecasts – Lessons from the 2020 Election
by
Javier
11d
ago
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A Double-Feature on The Extropians
by
Maxwell Tabarrok
13d
ago
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Uncertainty about the future does not imply that AGI will go well
by
Lauro Langosco
14d
ago
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Who are the Experts on Cryonics?
by
Mati_Roy
20d
ago
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What features would you like to see in a personal forcasting / prediction tracking app?
by
regnarg
22d
ago
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Announcing the Confido app: bringing forecasting to everyone
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regnarg
22d
ago
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Relative Value Functions: A Flexible New Format for Value Estimation
by
ozziegooen
1mo
ago
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Fatebook for Slack: Track your forecasts, right where your team works
by
Sage Future
1mo
ago
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How to Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
by
Ruby
1mo
ago
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Forecasting as a tool for teaching the general public to make better judgements?
by
Dominik Hajduk | České priority
1mo
ago
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Will GPT-5 be able to self-improve?
by
Nathan Helm-Burger
2mo
ago
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A Guide to Forecasting AI Science Capabilities
by
Eleni Angelou
2mo
ago