Well e.g. One Billion Americans isn't addressed at readers to tell them to have more kids. It's addressed at policy makers to pursue policies to allow for more population growth - including through immigration, not just pro-natalist policies.
You are right that Matt's places a larger share of his hope in immigration than birthrates. However, Matt argues that immigration leads to assimilation and that includes assimilating to Western birthrates. His commitment to the political project of one billion Americans seems to require escaping the current equilibrium birthrate.
The only good reason to have children is because you want to have children, whether because you like children, or because you want them to take over your business one day, or any other reason. The only thing that matters here is what you want, not any moral philosophy considerations. At least in the world where you are not relying on them to support you in your old age. If you need to justify having children or not having children by logicking about it, you are doing it wrong.
I think if you live in a context where having kids is a norm, that is, where the local knowledge and family -friendship support of having and raising kids prevails, then truly arguments are a waste of time. You have freedom of choice, knowing well what that option entails.
But I think most people are not in a situation like mruwnik where they have seen large families in action; they don't really have the freedom to have a large family, since the metis is missing.
In any case, I think any ethical philosophy worth a penny includes an ethics of family, economics, and societal growth. Philosophical argument on its own might not serve as reason to have kids. But our philosophies, examined or unexamined, often serve as justifications of momentous life choices of this sort. So I think I will reject that 'logicking' about having kids is a waste of time. Especially when people cite reasons philosophical and ethical for having/not having kids all the time.
I do feel like you are somewhat overstating the difficulty level of raising kids. I have three kids, the youngest of which is only five and yet well out of the phase where she is making big messes and requiring constant "active" parenting. The meme that raising kids is incredibly hard is, perhaps, a pet peeve of mine. Childless people often talk about children as if they remain helpless babies for 10 years. In truth, with my three kids, there will have only three years out of my in-expectation-long-life where I had to deal with sleep disruption and baby-related calisthenics. Once you get through that time period, there are very few child-related obligations that aren't more fun than whatever you would have been doing with your time anyway.
Another good reason to have kids that I don't see mentioned often is that the child will predictably become your favorite person. Before you have had kids, the default is to view future possible children as "abstract potential humans" with no particular qualities, which means it is basically impossible to vividly imagine how much you will care about them. We are particularly bad at reasoning about predictable changes to what we care about. I think it is important to at least try -- what you care about is going to inevitably drift over time, and if you're not modeling yourself as a person who cares about different things over time, then you're making an error. Having kids allows you to achieve a huge amount of "value" at a very cheap cost.
I'm now on number three.
Definitely on board with children shifting your value function a lot. One of them in particular (the newborn in the photo) shifts my value function more than I had anticipated.
In the recent interview Volodomyr Zelenskii said "if someone takes your child away, you'd bite his head off." ...Definitely true. And come to think of it... is that a Count Ugolino reference from the Divine Comedy?
If you have only one child and he or she dies, your entire life is fucked up for ever.
If you have 3-4 children, losing one is heart breaking but you will survive.
Big families are more resilient against death and grief.
(This is from experience with close friends and family members btw).
Nobody will care about you in the long-term future – except spouse and children (and maybe friendly AI?). So having children increases your chances to be resurrected or at least achieve significant life extension.
Hi Mack,
You seem somewhat new. I just want to let you know that community standards of discourse avoid appeals to authority, especially appeals to authority without commentary. A comment like this provides little value, even if in jest.
Downvoted because just running in and dropping a scripture quote without commentary degrades LW conversational norms. This is not Wednesday night bible study and people don't nod their heads smilingly because you found a related scripture quote. Even if the audience were 90% believers, I doubt they would interpret scripture the same way you do. You should explain why you chose this quote and what bearing it has on turchin's admittedly glib point.
Besides switching from protestantism to at least something with a bit more harumph like, catholicism or orthodoxy, I encourage you to wrestle with the sequences, if you haven't already.
Regards!
It is a variant of Roco Basilisk: people who cared about superinteligent entity will be rewarded more.
Updateless Decision Theory allows for acting as though you need to cooperate with an agent beyond you, even if it has a low probability of existing. I suppose your case of grandchildren works like this? I can cooperate with my as yet nonexistent grandchildren by making the probability of their existence higher, they will likely reward me more?
I'll have to work on my family norms then! Ancestor worship, it is!
Yes, it is something like this. For example, I still working on projects which my late mother started (like publishing her book and preserving archive).
The counterpoint to 3 - AI - invalidates most of the economical counterpoints.
The counterpoint to 5 - evolution - invalidates most arguments too - including itself! If you don't accept the indirect incentives evolution created why should you accept the also indirect economical incentives?
I agree with your visceral incentives though;-)
The first argument (cheap labour) is actually a valid one. Anecdotally at least. I know a few families with multiple (e.g. 10) children who keep animals etc. as a large fraction of their income and the children help out a lot. A 4 year old can pick fruit and chase chickens. A 6 year old can peel potatoes and pick herbs. A 10 year old can fix easy mechanical problems. A 12 year old can be trusted with the younger children. Once they're around 16, they're pretty much adults and can take on stuff that otherwise you'd have to do.
That being said, you're right about this being at the cost of one parent a 4/5 time domestic engineer. Though in the case of a farm (or in general a family type business), this is still worth the investment. Especially if you treat it as a form of retirement protection - hopefully one of your children will take over the farm once you get old and hopefully won't kick you out.
Kids can be surprisingly useful resources at a surprisingly early age.
Kids can be surprisingly useful resources at a surprisingly early age.
On farms, as you've said, kids can figure out what to do and help out easily. If your work requires a lot of low-skill repetitive manual labor, kids can do that, and it can help teach them how to do your slightly higher-skill labor next year.
This does not apply if you work as an engineer, or in an office, or many other cases where specific skills contingent on mostly-finished-developing brains are required to do your work and there is no manual labor that you can offload to children. If you expect your kid to go through the standard college route, there are 22 years of waiting before they can really do anything useful to help with your labor.
A list with counter-commentary:
Are these reasons all bad? They are okay and yet, for many, not compelling. Can one really be intellectually convinced to go through the deeply visceral experience of conceiving and raising children? Yes, some people for sure; for us, perhaps especially! But we need more than that. We need visceral experience and a community of practice to clear the way.
So in addition to the reasons above I submit to you my visceral experience from yesterday as an additional reason to have kids.