[LINK] Was Intrade being manipulated?

by DanielVarga1 min read8th Nov 201218 comments

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Overcoming Bias: Was Intrade being manipulated in the last month?

The link is good apropos, but the question that interests me is a bit more general. It seems to me that the apparent failure of Intrade to function as a predictor/knowledge aggregator before the US presidential elections was an important natural experiment. What do you think about the explanations and implications? I don't think it's too hard to discuss the knowledge aggregation issues without being bogged down in the specificities of US politics.