Anthropics Does Not Work LIke That

by Pavitra1 min read12th Aug 201117 comments


Personal Blog

People around here seem to think that a recent series of near-misses, such as not destroying the world in the Cold War, is evidence in favor of quantum immortality.

This fails to appreciate that the anthropic selection bias has no limit on how far back it can make things retroactively seem to happen. If, as has been suggested, a majority of the Everett branches from our 1950 destroyed the world, then it is equally true that a majority of the Everett branches from our 1750 in which there is someone still alive in 2010 failed to contain probably-world-destroying technology.

The existence of x-risk near-miss events should be taken as evidence against quantum immortality.